Abstract
The rapid proliferation of unmanned aerial systems (UAS), swarm drones, loitering munitions, and autonomous strike technologies is reshaping the character of modern warfare. This paper examines the qualitative and quantitative drone threat to India from its potential adversaries in the context of a future multi-front tri-Service war and analyses the anti-drone capabilities required to counter such threats. The study assesses the expanding drone arsenals and operational doctrines of China and Pakistan across the spectrum of ISTAR platforms, UCAVs, swarm drones, FPV systems, and loitering munitions, including the possibility of collusive employment.
It further evaluates the likely operational pattern of future drone warfare, characterized by persistent grey-zone activity followed by large-scale swarm and drone attacks intended to overwhelm India’s air defence and command-and-control networks. Based on open-source assessments, the paper estimates that India could face coordinated drone attacks of 1500–2000 or more platforms per day during a high-intensity conflict. The study argues for an integrated Counter-UAS framework comprising advanced detection systems, kinetic and non-kinetic kill mechanisms, and dedicated Battle Management Command and Control (BMC2) architecture, supported by accelerated indigenization and capacity building.
Keywords: Drone Warfare, Counter-UAS (C-UAS) Swarm Drones, Multi-Front Warfare, Air Defence, Autonomous Systems
