A Geopolitical Analysis of PM Modi’s Five-Nation Tour (May 15–20, 2026)
Introduction
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi boarded his flight on May 15, 2026, for a six-day, five-nation tour spanning the UAE, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, and Italy, it will not merely be a routine exercise in diplomatic optics. It is a carefully calibrated strategic manoeuvre, designed to address India’s most acute vulnerabilities while simultaneously projecting the image of a self-assured, indispensable rising power in the global arena. He is visiting some of the world’s most technologically advanced and energy-rich countries at a moment when oil and gas markets are in turmoil, driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a protracted European conflict, and the rewiring of global supply chains.[i]
India is the world’s third-largest consumer of crude oil, importing nearly 87 percent of its requirements. Any distress in global supply chains strikes at the very jugular of the nation’s economic stability. In the current scenario, New Delhi not only faces a diplomatic inconvenience but a structural energy crisis demanding immediate, proactive statecraft to shape India’s efforts toward energy self‑reliance.[ii] Against this backdrop, the Prime Minister’s diplomatic marathon appears explicitly designed as a “Mission for Energy Security,” with each nation selected strategically to address specific vulnerabilities in India’s economic and strategic architecture.
The Geopolitical Canvas
The global order in May 2026 is fracturing along multiple axes simultaneously. The Strait of Hormuz crisis, triggered by escalating US-Iran-Israel tensions in the backdrop of Trump’s tariff war, has disrupted West Asian energy flows, forcing India to urgently diversify its energy sourcing calculus. Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine continues to impose severe costs on European security architecture and global supply chains. The US-China technology rivalry has weaponised sourcing of rare earth minerals and semiconductor supply chains, turning these into instruments of geopolitical leverage. Meanwhile, multipolarity is no longer a theoretical aspiration but an operational reality, as middle powers from Türkiye to Canada to Indonesia, increasingly challenge the post-1991 liberal order’s normative consensus. India, the world’s most populous nation and amongst the fastest-growing major economies, sits at the centre of these crosscurrents; actively courted by Washington, Beijing and Moscow, yet determined to remain independent of them.[iii] It engages with every major power centre on its own terms, extracting maximum value from each relationship, without sacrificing the freedom to pursue national interests.
Analysing Modi’s Pit Stops
UAE: The Energy Anchor
The first pit stop is strategically incisive. The UAE’s recent exit from OPEC+ makes it potentially the most consequential bilateral energy partner India can cultivate in the near term. By departing the cartel, Abu Dhabi has demonstrated a willingness to set its own production and pricing agenda making direct bilateral supply agreements both feasible and attractive.[iv] Beyond hydrocarbons, the UAE dimension is human. India’s 3.5-million-strong diaspora in the UAE constitutes one of the largest Indian communities anywhere in the world, generating billions in annual remittances and building a people-to-people architecture that gives the relationship a genuine depth. Also, UAE is India’s third largest trade partner and seventh largest source of investment cumulatively over the past 25 years.[v] The meeting with UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan is expected to advance India-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) implementation, investment facilitation and potential Rupee-Dirham trade settlement. Each of which reduces India’s dependence on dollar-denominated transactions and builds resilience against Western financial pressure.
The Netherlands: Semiconductors and Green Transition
If the UAE stop is about energy survival, the Netherlands stop is about technological sovereignty. The Dutch city of Veldhoven is home to ASML, the world’s sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines which is the indispensable equipment for the fabrication of all advanced semiconductors. India’s nascent semiconductor ambitions make access to ASML’s technology pipeline a matter of paramount strategic importance.[vi] India’s semiconductor mission, with four plants commencing commercial production in 2026, including the USD 14 billion Tata Electronics plant in Gujarat’s Dholera Special Investment Region, requires ASML equipment and expertise. Union Electronics Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw confirmed in January 2026 that India’s Dholera fab will deploy ASML’s advanced lithography tools, and that ASML is “actively looking to partner with Indian companies”.[vii]
Prime Minister Modi is scheduled to meet King Willem-Alexander and Queen Maxima, followed by substantive talks with Prime Minister Rob Jetten. The Netherlands is already India’s fourth-largest investor globally, with bilateral trade reaching USD 27.8 billion in 2024-25.[viii] The Netherlands, a longtime NATO member with significant military capabilities, offers opportunities for deeper defence collaboration. India’s growing military modernization efforts align well with Dutch technological expertise in advanced defence systems.
Perhaps most critically, bilateral discussions will prioritize green hydrogen development. As global markets pivot toward clean energy, collaborative research and development between Indian and Dutch firms could position both nations advantageously in the emerging hydrogen economy. The Dutch expertise in water management is globally unrivalled and India needs this expertise as sea level rise threatens its densely populated 7,500-kilometre coastline over the coming decades.[ix] This proposed strategic partnership on water management adds a sustainability dimension that resonates with European environmental priorities.
Sweden: The Innovation Hub and Gateway to EU
Sweden is widely recognized as the most innovative country in the world and leads in research and development (R&D) expenditure, education, and creative outputs. Visiting at the invitation of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, Sweden is home to some of Europe’s most innovative corporations such as, Ericsson, Volvo, Saab, ABB, that are deeply invested in India’s manufacturing and telecommunications ecosystem.[x] The visit will also address emerging technological frontiers of artificial intelligence, advanced startups, resilient supply chains and the green transition.
The most pivotal element of the Sweden visit will be the trilateral forum involving PM Modi, PM Ulf Kristersson, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who had shepherded the landmark India-EU Free Trade Agreement in January 2026, at the European Round Table for Industry, a leading pan-European business leaders’ forum. According to the European Parliament’s legislative tracker, the agreement awaits the Commission’s proposal to the Council, followed by European Parliament consent and India’s own ratification before entering into force. Modi’s meeting with von der Leyen in Sweden is therefore crucial: it will provide political momentum to accelerate ratification, address outstanding sensitivities around automobile tariffs, and signal to European markets that India is a reliable long-term partner worthy of preferential economic engagement.[xi]
Norway and the Nordic Summit
The Oslo chapter of this tour is its centrepiece and, in many ways, its most far-sighted component. This is the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to Norway in 43 years, a milestone that underscores both the historic neglect of Nordic diplomacy and the urgency with which India now seeks to rectify it. The 3rd India-Nordic Summit brings together the Prime Ministers of Norway, Denmark, Finland, Iceland and Sweden, representing a combined GDP of approximately USD 1.8 trillion, with formidable expertise in green technology, maritime industries, Arctic research and sovereign wealth management. India’s bilateral trade with Nordic nations reached USD 19 billion in 2024 a figure with enormous latent potential. Arctic cooperation has emerged as a genuinely strategic agenda item. India, as an observer member of the Arctic Council since 2013, has real interests in the High North: climate research (Arctic ice melt directly affects Indian monsoon patterns), emerging shipping routes (the Northern Sea Route) and resource access. The Nordic Summit will build on this foundation.[xii]
There is also a geopolitical intricacy worth noting. Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership were confirmed in 2023 and 2024 respectively. This has transformed Nordic geopolitics. These nations are now formal military allies of the West yet, they maintain sophisticated engagement with Russia across trade and diplomatic channels that predate their NATO membership. India, with its own Russia relationship, could position itself as an honest broker between the Nordic countries and Moscow especially, on the issues like Arctic governance and conflict de-escalation in Ukraine. The visit could create such a diplomatic opening to pursue if circumstances permit.
The Italian Bridge to G-7
Visit to Italy has its own strategic logic. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s right-wing leader, has forged an unexpected but pragmatic personal rapport with Modi, rooted in their shared emphasis on civilisational pride and national sovereignty. The visit takes place against the backdrop of the two sides proactively implementing the joint strategic action plan for 2025-2029, a roadmap for cooperation in sectors such as bilateral trade, which reached $16.77 in 2025, and boosting investment, which was cumulatively worth $3.66 billion between April 2000 and September 2025.[xiii] The Joint Strategic Action Plan 2025 to 2029 provides the framework between the two countries for cooperation in clean energy, defence co-production, innovation and people-to-people ties. Defence cooperation is particularly significant as, Italy’s advanced manufacturing capabilities in aerospace and defence can complement India’s military modernization needs. For India, Meloni’s Italy serves as a valuable interlocutor within both the G7 and the EU, a sympathetic voice willing to advocate for India’s interests within forums where New Delhi has no formal seat.
Modi’s European Visit and India’s Aspirations
At the fundamental level, during Prime Minister Modi’s May 2026 diplomatic tour of Europe, India would seek to take advantage of the recent momentum following the India-EU Free Trade Agreement and the India-EFTA trade pact to secure long-term economic, energy, and technological partnerships.
Short Term Tangible Outcomes
The most tangible and immediate deliverable of the PM’s tour would be energy supply agreements with the UAE and, potentially, Norway. Both nations offer supply routes that bypass the Hormuz bottleneck, the UAE through overland and Red Sea alternatives, Norway through Atlantic via Suez canal trade routes. Even partial commitments to dedicated supply corridors would be a step forward towards India’s energy security This is critical given Hormuz disruption anxiety. Also, Norway’s most consequential near-term contribution could be its green hydrogen roadmap. This will give a huge fillip to India’s National Green Hydrogen Mission.
From the Dutch, the most far-reaching near-term deliverable would be a India-Netherlands Semiconductor Partnership. This could potentially include ASML’s commitment to establish a full support and service centre in India, technology training programmes and collaborative R&D frameworks. This would not only bring in latest technology but, accelerate India’s chip fabrication ambitions and reduce dependence on East Asian semiconductor supply chains. As the ASML’s EUV machines are subject to strict Dutch and US export controls, immediate technology transfers may not be on the near-term anvil. However, Initiation of a dialogue and establishing India as a credible, trusted semiconductor partner, could bear fruit over the next three to five years, especially as India’s Semiconductor Mission gains momentum.
The Nordic Summit in Oslo is expected to produce a comprehensive joint communiqué covering green hydrogen, Arctic cooperation, digital public goods and blue economy initiatives. Investment commitments from sovereign wealth funds into Indian infrastructure and clean energy would represent a transformative inflow of long-term capital.
Strategic Outcomes
The most transformative potential outcome of this tour is momentum on the India-EU Free Trade Agreement. With engagements in the Netherlands, Sweden and Italy, three of Europe’s most commercially significant economies all explicitly focused on accelerating the FTA, and with the Von der Leyen meeting in Gothenburg adding institutional gravitas, the tour could finally provide the political impetus that technical negotiations have long lacked.
The Nordic Summit outcome carries a different kind of strategic significance, it begins the institutionalisation of India’s relationship with five technologically sophisticated, innovation-rich nations that have been underserved by Indian diplomacy. Green hydrogen collaboration, if it reaches commercial scale, could help India meet its 2070 net-zero commitment while reducing dependence on fossil fuel imports.
Finally, this tour reinforces India’s positioning for the BRICS Summit it is hosting in New Delhi in September 2026. By demonstrating active European engagement, India signals to Global South partners that it can serve as a genuine bridge between the Western and non-Western worlds, a unique and irreplaceable role in the emerging multipolar order.
Conclusion: Navigating the Transactional World
Any serious geopolitical analysis of Modi’s European tour must confront the question of ‘India’s simultaneous deepening of its strategic entanglement with Russia may create friction with its European interlocutors’. On one hand, India deepens its ties with European nations that are deeply invested in the Ukraine conflict’s resolution. Contrarily, it is billowing its Russian crude oil imports to near-record levels, operationalising RELOS (Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Agreement), expanding defence relationship with Russia and maintaining its silence at the UN, on resolutions condemning Moscow’s actions in Ukraine.
Considering the above; How does India reconcile its robust partnership with Russia with its European diplomacy? The answer probably lies in India’s healthy diplomatic engagements under the ambit of ‘Strategic Autonomy’. The needs of India, a rising economy with a population of 1.4 billion, cannot be met by one or two or a set of countries. To meet its national interests it has to collaborate with multiple partners under a deliberately constructed architecture of multi-lateral engagements with overlapping interests, each managed with care and precision. Indian mandarins have worked hard to manage this balance. On one hand, abstaining (rather than vetoing) UN resolutions on Ukraine and on the other consistently urging dialogue and peace (Modi’s direct message to Putin “this is not an era of war” is very well documented); maintaining high decibel of civilian trade while refraining from military assistance to Russia. As EAM S. Jaishankar stated at the Munich Security Conference on 14 February 2026, “India is deeply committed to strategic autonomy. Our oil companies make decisions based on availability, cost and risk”.[xiv]
As India hosts the BRICS Summit in September 2026, with President Putin expected in New Delhi, the world will watch whether India can simultaneously be the convener of a multipolar coalition and a deeply integrated partner of the European-led economic order. There is no clear cut answer however, the fact remains that, no other country on earth is even attempting this. And that uniqueness is itself a form of power. India’s strategic autonomy is not a hedge against commitment, it is a commitment to the proposition that in a world of competing great powers, a nation of 1.4 billion people with a 5,000-year civilisational legacy need not choose a master. It can choose partners, and multiple partners at that. And on this May tour, it is doing precisely that, selectively, purposefully and with the quiet confidence of a nation that knows the world needs it more than it needs the world.
[i] Hindustan Times. (2026, May 11). PM Modi to embark on five-nation visit this week, including India-Nordic Summit. https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/pm-modi-to-embark-on-five-nation-visit-this-week-uae-netherlands-sweden-norway-italy-energy-trade-in-focus-101778523703757.html
[ii] Council on Foreign Relations. (2026, February 17). Oil Energy, India-U.S. Relations, and the Russia Conundrum. CFR China Strategy Initiative.https://www.cfr.org/articles/oil-energy-india-u-s-relations-and-the-russia-conundrum
[iii] Organiser. (2026, April 27). RELOS Pact: Strategic leap into Arctic & multipolar world. https://organiser.org/2026/04/27/350030/world/india-russia-relos-pact
[iv] The Tribune India. (2026, May 11). Global tightrope: PM Modi to embark on high-stakes 5-nation tour amid energy crisis. ANI/Tribune News Service. https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/ai/global-tightrope-pm-modi
[v] Hindustan Times. (2026, May 12). PM Modi to embark on five-nation visit this week, including India-Nordic Summit. https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/pm-modi-to-embark-on-five-nation-visit-this-week-uae-netherlands-sweden-norway-italy-energy-trade-in-focus-101778523703757.html
[vi] Reuters. (2026, March 4). India seeks Dutch knowhow in semiconductor push. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-seeks-dutch-knowhow-semiconductor-push-2026-03-04/
[vii] Economic Times Telecom. (2026, March 26). ASML actively considering partnering with Indian companies. https://telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/policy/asml-explores-partnerships-with-indian-companies-for-semiconductor-mission/129837668
[viii]Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India(2026, 11 May). https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/41126/Visit_of_Prime_Minister_to_UAE_Netherlands_Sweden_Norway_and_Italy_May_15__20_2026
[ix] Combating Floods in India: Learning from The Dutch Experience, Diplomatist (2025, 26 May)
[x] Navbharat Times (2026, 11 May). यूएई, नीदरलैंड, स्वीडन, नॉर्वे और इटली, 5 देशों के दौरे पर जा रहे पीएम मोदी, जानें प्रधानमंत्री की यात्रा का पूरा शेड्यूल. https://navbharattimes.indiatimes.com/india/uae-netherlands-sweden-norway-and-italy-pm-modi-tour-of-five-countries/articleshow/131020663.cms
[xi] European Parliament Legislative Train. (2026). EU-India FTA, IPA/BIT and GI Agreement. Brussels: European Parliament. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-global-europe-leveraging-our-power-and-partnerships/file-eu-india-fta-bit-and-gi-agreement
[xii] Tribune India. (2026, May 11). Historic: PM Modi’s Norway visit to focus on climate, maritime cooperation, geopolitics — Norwegian Envoy. https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world/historic-pm-modis-norway-visit-to-focus-on-climate-maritime-cooperation-geopolitics-envoy/
[xiii] Hindustan Times. (2026, May 11). PM Modi to embark on five-nation visit this week, including India-Nordic Summit. https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/pm-modi-to-embark-on-five-nation-visit-this-week-uae-netherlands-sweden-norway-italy-energy-trade-in-focus-101778523703757.html
[xiv] Times of India. (2026, February 15). Jaishankar on Russia ties: Firmly Wedded to Strategic Autonomy. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/jaishankar-on-russia-ties-firmly-wedded-to-strategic-autonomy/articleshow/128368198.cms
