Abstract
The Grey Zone is best understood as an overarching operational space between peace and open war, wherein state and non-state actors employ coercive methods across multiple domains (physical and cognitive) to advance geopolitical objectives, below the threshold of overt conflict. The paper maps Grey Zone activities across a four-quadrant conflict model for analytical clarity, which includes regular warfare, irregular warfare, competition, and deterrence. The paper highlights the significance of determinants such as gradualism, escalation management, selective attributability, and maintaining tactical clarity alongside strategic ambiguity in shaping and sustaining Grey Zone campaigns. The determinants can act as a valuable funnel test for analysts.
