Abstract
As we understand the evolution of Russia, we can appreciate that the conflict with Ukraine was imminent. Russia had no other option but to challenge the Western influence through the use of its hybrid playbook and interference in the governance infrastructure. The timeline from 1989 to 2025 chronicles Russia’s dramatic shift from a commanding superpower to a regional power grappling with fragmentation, internal challenges, and increasingly formidable external rivals. Hybrid tactics, war, diplomacy, and transnational networks all played their part, but, above all, the defining rhythm has been the fragmentation of power, identity, security, and allegiances. The historic outcomes forced Ukraine to embark on the path of war to safeguard its nationalist ambitions. Russia carefully chose Ukraine because all other plausible targets that aligned with Moscow’s objectives were either protected by NATO or too small for their destabilisation to achieve the desired strategic outcome.
