President Donald Trump’s approval rating fell below 40% in the month of July, reaching a new low in his second term. This has been a result of a myriad of factors, including the erosion of international standing, social backlash, and a perceived sense of dysfunction with his administration.
Core Support Base Remains Strong
A president’s domestic standing can be measured through a set of parameters, primary among which is the support of his core electoral base and overall public opinion. In the case of Donald Trump, despite dwindling approval numbers and a growing sense of volatility, particularly among independents, his core base among Republican voters remains well and truly intact, with an approval rating hovering between 75%-90%. Even in the swing states, while his overall standing may have taken a hit, it is safe to say a growing sense of disapproval may not always translate into electoral weakness.
Institutional Pushback
Secondly, opposition from internal institutions is also a key indicator of the strength of an American President, owing to the strict checks and balances amongst various organs of the government. For Trump, who has faced considerable judicial pushback to his executive actions, from the blocking of the Birthright Citizenship Order to ordering a cessation of deportations under his asylum ban, the courts have proven to be a constant hurdle to Trump’s pursuit of unrestrained executive authority. Additionally, pushback from Congress seems to have added to Trump’s frustrations, seen most prominently through the Trade Review Act of 2025, where the bipartisan legislation requires any new tariffs to be reviewed and approved by Congress within 60 days, thus reasserting Congressional authority over various aspects of trade. While the Republican-controlled House of Representatives has been largely aligned with Trump’s actions, the administration has faced stiff criticism from multiple corners of the Senate, especially on matters of foreign policy and international tariffs.
Media, being the next core stakeholder, has repeatedly caught the ire of Trump. On the one hand, despite budget cuts and corporate pressure, mainstream media has largely continued to scrutinize Trump’s policies, while the conservative section of the institution has doubled down on shielding the administration from criticism. Things are not so balanced when it comes to social media, however, where young voters have explicitly voiced their disapproval of various aspects of Trump’s policies. Trump has responded to the restriction of space by popular media by starting and supporting his own networks of alternative media, from Truth Social to far-right outlets like OANN.
Standing Within the Republican Party Seems to Only Grow with Time
Finally, Trump’s current domestic standing also needs to be put in the context of his backing within the Republican Party itself. Despite recent murmurs of a dip in support for Trump within the Grand Old Party (GOP), several polls and surveys paint a different picture. While a high percentage of Republicans continue to posit their faith in Trump, an even higher number of people now identify as Trump supporters rather than as supporters of the party itself. This underlines not only the cult of the personality but also a lack of any major alternative to Trump as the leader of the GOP. Polls have also shown Trump to be the preferred choice for the majority of the primary voters, ahead of his nearest rival by a 47-point margin. Interestingly, the President has secured an even stronger footing among ultra-conservative Republicans, a significant change in trend since his first term in 2016. Aside from Polls, Trump’s footprint within the GOP is also visible through the institutional influence he carries within the party, as evidenced by his placement of loyalists like Michael Watley as Chair of the Republican National Committee and his grooming of successors at the national level, such as JD Vance and Marco Rubio, within his fold.
Thus, it is imperative to note that while Trump may be weaker institutionally, with repeated disapprovals and reprimands from the Courts, Congress, and the Media, his standing within his support base and the party itself remains intact, if not increased over time. With the growing resistance from institutions and widespread protests among civil society during his presidency, Trump has played the narrative of being targeted and persecuted by all sections of society. This has resulted in increasing political polarisation, which in turn has led to a solidification of his support base. Therefore, analysing Donald Trump’s domestic standing remains, much like the man himself, a paradox.
