Even as the media debated the ins and outs of the car blast at the Red Fort, the government was admirably cautious in labelling it a terror attack, confirming it two days later after investigators probed the incident. Some basic facts are now available in the public domain. A module was tracked from Kashmir, and a load of explosive material found its way through Saharanpur and Faridabad, a direction that logically means it was headed for the Capital.
New data confirms that the two are connected incidents, with the same module involved. So far, no direct Pakistan link has been unearthed, other than a strong dose of radicalisation of whose source and motivation is unclear. That only makes it more dangerous. This is like a virus running underground.
According to available data, in October, posters exhorting the population not to cooperate with police and such, apparently from the Jaish-e-Mohammad, were seen in Nowgam, Srinagar. An alert superintendent of police identified the person involved as a doctor — Adeel Ahmed Rather — who had served as a senior resident at Government Medical College (GMC) in Anantnag.
Even as the Jammu and Kashmir Police (JKP) investigated GMC and found arms and ammunition, UP police were alerted, leading to the arrest of Rather, who had shifted to Saharanpur, in the first week of November. That trail went on to Faridabad and the arrest of Muzzamil Ganaie, a resident of Pulwama, a doctor at Al-Falah hospital in Faridabad. That was early November. Some 2,900 kg of bomb-making material, including ammonium nitrate, was recovered.
Even as the JKP launched a strong counter-terrorism operation on November 10, a car exploded the same evening in Delhi. The initial theory of a CNG explosion was dismissed as traces of ammonium nitrate were found, and CCTV footage identified another doctor, Umar un-Nabi as the driver of the car, from the same Faridabad hospital, and confirmed since by forensic evidence.
So that seems to close chapter one, even as more arrests followed, including a radical imam in Shopian and a woman doctor from Lucknow, also from Al-Falah. More will follow. But the point is this. This is across states, and the entire network is unlikely to have been extracted.
There is now a doubt whether a car bomb was even intended. A few hundred yards down the road, and he would have been able to kill many more at the Shri Gauri Shankar temple, and thereby create communal tensions, which is usually what terrorists want. Or perhaps even an entirely different target in New Delhi proper. One assumption is that he “panicked” as other gang members were picked up.
That could be. But according to all accounts, the whole plan seems to have been underway for at least two years, which indicates plenty of preparation time, both physically and mentally.
Besides that, this means the cell was active long before Operation Sindoor. This rather rules out the theory that this is a revenge for the air attacks on Jaish and Lashkar home ground.
From all accounts, this was a quiet and extensive sleeper cell network of entirely unsuspected groups of people, not all from Kashmir, waiting for the right moment to strike.
To understand this phenomenon, consider the arrest by the Spanish and Italian police of a huge Pakistani cell spread across the country, involved in radicalisation for years. It went undetected, and took another two years before the final arrests in March this year. This chapter is unlikely to close soon.
The next chapter is inevitably Pakistan. Pakistan’s army chief has engineered a political coup with the 27th constitutional amendment that gives him absolute power, and leads to the army superseding everyone else. Dismay and fear is apparent as a pushback is reported not only from within the army, but from political parties.
Soon, Asim Munir would have missiles also at his absolute command to start a war. Had the module not been caught, what could have happened is anybody’s guess.
Instead, on November 11, hours after the Delhi blast, a car bomb exploded in the heart of Islamabad. The Pakistani Taliban claimed the attack and Islamabad immediately blamed Delhi. Delhi, intent on its own investigation, refrained from finger pointing.
Meanwhile, India would also do well to look well within, at a climate that pushed young, ambitious doctors to go radical, and many others in the wings. A key reality has to be recognised. Terrorism cannot be created anew. It can only build on an existing divisive situation. Pakistan is a prime example of the latter.
Delhi needs to act against what it has overlooked: The spewing of religious hatred from various parts of the country, and a torrent of disinformation that feeds this. The media needs to highlight that members of both communities died.
Meanwhile, official briefings need to be stepped by our embassies, in an exercise of sharing information on a highly transnational and global phenomenon. Given reports of key terrorist leaders meeting ‘handlers’ in Turkey, it might even be wise to warn Ankara.
As for the rest of society, it needs to understand that this is not a “Kashmir problem”, but a pan-India one. If the danger is everywhere, so are the solutions. Stand together.
It’s the only solution among multiple enemies who want this land divided and torn apart, and perhaps would like both countries to go to war. Delhi’s steady economic rise has caused considerable agitation in multiple capitals.
