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Japan’s Philippine Gambit and the India Question

Arushi AnthalbyArushi Anthal
July 6, 2026
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On May 28, 2026, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae and the Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. held a summit meeting and elevated the Philippine-Japan relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, stating that Japan and the Philippines were “like-minded maritime democracies, have entered a platinum era of relations and have become one of the closest of like-minded countries, characterized by unprecedented levels of trust, cooperation, and strategic alignment.” It was announced during the four-day state visit by the President of the Republic of the Philippines to Japan from May 26 to 29, 2026, which coincided with the 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two nations. This upgrade to the “Platinum Era” of the relationship came after more than a decade of “Strengthened Strategic Partnership for Advancing the Shared Principles and Goals of Peace, Security, and Growth in the Region and Beyond” signed by Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and the Philippines President Benigno S. Aquino III in 2015. At its core, the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership 2026 hailed the deeper interoperability through the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) signed in 2025 for conducting cooperative activities like joint exercises and disaster relief. Furthermore, both nations welcomed the signing of the Japan-Philippines Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) on 15 January 2026, which established the framework constituting “settlement procedures for the reciprocal provision of supplies and services.” In the domain of security, both nations agreed to “promote the transfer of defense equipment, including destroyers, TC-90 and radar systems, with the Agreement concerning the Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology and the Official Security Assistance (OSA) in mind.” While they strongly emphasised strengthening Japan-Philippines-United States cooperation for regional stability, they also emphasised their intention to enhance coordination with “like-minded partners, such as Australia and India,” to “uphold a free and open international order based on the rule of law”. Most importantly, Japan and the Philippines agreed to “delimit the maritime boundary of the exclusive economic zone and the continental shelf between the two countries” in accordance with the UNCLOS to promote peace, stability, and mutual trust. Other major initiatives under the CSP 2026 included deepening cooperation under the Partnership on Wide Energy and Resources Resilience Asia, or POWERR Asia, for strong and resilient supply chains.

ASEAN Chairmanship, Implementation and the China Factor

It is important to note that the elevation to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership is not just a diplomatic gesture but a shift from framework to operational reality. While the RAA 2025 established a legal basis for reciprocal deployments, the ACSA 2026 facilitates logistics and mutual support. In fact, the formal launch of negotiations on the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) and the commitment to delimit the maritime boundary under UNCLOS are in themselves significant. Moreover, this sequence seems deliberate as each agreement builds on the previous one, moving from access to logistics, intelligence sharing, and joint maritime domain management.

The Philippines’ ASEAN Chairmanship in 2026 provides important strategic context and momentum, which is explicitly stated in the recent Joint Statement as well, which mentions the Philippines’ regional convening role and the decision to co-host the Asia Zero Emission Community Summit (AZEC) later this year. For Japan, the timing is of great importance, as this CSP upgrade with the Philippines will help it anchor its Indo-Pacific initiatives on supply chains and energy resilience through a trusted partner. So, this simultaneous bilateral deepening and multilateral leadership expands the regional impact of this partnership.

However, one of the most immediate geopolitical drivers and in some ways a potential risk is China. Beijing has protested against the Japan-maritime delimitation negotiations. The Ministry of Natural Resources’ China Institute of Marine Affairs voiced their disagreement, stating that “The announcement, undertaken without consultation with China and in disregard of the region’s specific geographical circumstances, violates international law.” The statement also added that this move harmed sovereign equality and violated cooperation and self-restraint, noting that “China, as the state whose rights and interests have been injured, is entitled to invoke the responsibility of Japan and the Philippines for their internationally wrongful acts.” Since 2026 marks the 10th anniversary of the 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Award, these talks are seen as an attempt to internationalise resistance to Chinese maritime assertiveness. Therefore, this CSP presents a unique opportunity amidst tensions. On one hand, it capitalises on shared threat perceptions of both Japan and the Philippines, and on the other, it provokes a sharper Chinese response. For the moment, the Japan-Philippines partnership demonstrates a focus on operational frameworks rather than mere declarations, but the durability of this trajectory depends on whether both nations can sustain high-level bilateral focus after the end of the ASEAN Chairmanship of the Philippines.

Implications for India

For New Delhi, the Japan-Philippines Comprehensive Strategic Partnership is timely, as Paragraph 22 of the CSP Joint Statement explicitly mentions India’s role in the international order-based rule of law. Such a direct mention of India underscores its role in the Indo-Pacific. Moreover, Japanese PM Takichi Sanae’s visit to India from 1-3 July 2026 reinforced their commitment to “enhance the India-Japan Special Strategic and Global Partnership” with new agreements on AI, supply chains, and maritime security. In the Indo-Pacific, where no single power can dominate, these three democracies can converge on shared priorities through trilateral and minilateral engagement in domains like maritime domain awareness, coast guard capacity building and resilient supply chains. Additionally, a notable shift in the nomenclature of US military command from USINDOPACOM to USPACOM, although stated to be a mere terminological change, reflects the evolving American priorities in the region. This creates a perceptible gap in the multilateral cooperation that middle powers like India, Japan, and the Philippines have the capacity to fill. So, in a fragmented multipolar landscape, minilaterals among like-minded partners could be a pragmatic option to free, open and stable Indo-Pacific. As stated, Para. 22 of the Japan-Philippines Joint Statement does provide an on-record invitation to India, but how New Delhi responds to this opening remains to be seen.

Tags: China factorIndo-PacificPhilippines-Japan RelationsRegional SecuritySouth Asia
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Pakistan- Occupied Jammu and Kashmir: The Unravelling of Islamabad’s ‘So-Called Azad Kashmir’ Narrative. 

Arushi Anthal

Arushi Anthal

Arushi Anthal is a Research Assistant at the Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), where her research focuses on Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific. She is also a Ph.D. Research Scholar at the Amity Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (AIDSS), Amity University, Uttar Pradesh, India. She holds an M.Phil. in Strategic and Regional Studies and Master's degree in Political Science from the University of Jammu. She is also a recipient of the University Grants Commission's Junior Research Fellowship (UGC-JRF) in Political Science. Alongside her doctoral research, she has served as a Visiting Faculty at the Amity Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, Amity University. Her research interests include Southeast Asia, the Indo-Pacific, maritime security, and strategic affairs. She has authored commentaries, peer-reviewed research articles, and book chapters published by reputed academic and policy platforms. She has also presented her research at numerous national and international conferences and seminars. Email - [email protected]

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