Originally Published at : https://rnamedia.in/critical-state-of-pakistans-submarine-warfare-capability/
Recent satellite imagery analysis has exposed a damning reality for Pakistan’s naval ambitions, revealing that only two of its five operational submarines remain seaworthy as of March 2025. This alarming development highlights fundamental weaknesses in Pakistan’s much-vaunted submarine-centric defence strategy, with prolonged maintenance cycles crippling the ageing Agosta-class fleet. At the same time, delays plague the Chinese Type 039A (Hangor-class) programme. The deteriorating state of Pakistan’s undersea warfare capability represents a significant strategic vulnerability that undermines the nation’s maritime defence posture in the Arabian Sea.
Operational Crisis: A Fleet in Shambles
The stark reality of Pakistan’s submarine force became evident through satellite imagery from Karachi’s naval docks captured in March 2025, which revealed a fleet in crisis. Of Pakistan’s five operational submarines, three are either undergoing prolonged maintenance cycles or stranded on land, leaving merely two vessels capable of underwater operations. This represents a catastrophic operational availability rate that would be considered unacceptable by any modern naval standard.
The imagery shows two submarines docked for extensive maintenance and upgrades, with ongoing cycles as of April 2025. More concerning is the third submarine, likely one of the Agosta-90B class, positioned entirely out of water at the Karachi Shipyard and Engineering Works (KSEW) for repairs or modernisation. This leaves Pakistan with potentially one Agosta-70 and one Agosta-90B submarine operational, a force so diminished that it can barely maintain coastal patrol duties, let alone project any meaningful deterrent capability.
The situation has been described by defence analysts as “not a good time for the PN subsurface fleet,” with some observers calling the docked submarines effectively “sitting ducks”. This represents a fundamental failure of fleet management and maintenance planning that has left Pakistan’s naval leadership scrambling to maintain even basic underwater surveillance capabilities.
The Agosta Fleet’s Structural Failures
Pakistan’s submarine woes are deeply rooted in the systemic problems plaguing its Agosta-class fleet, comprising two Agosta-70 (Hashmat-class) and three Agosta-90B (Khalid-class) vessels. The Hashmat-class submarines, commissioned in 1979-1980, are plagued by ageing infrastructure and chronic mechanical failures. Reports indicate that PNS Hurmat suffers from a faulty starboard engine and electronic warfare system, rendering it completely non-operational.
The three Agosta-90B submarines, despite being newer vessels commissioned between 1999 and 2008, are mired in protracted mid-life upgrade programmes. Under a contract with Turkey’s STM, these submarines are undergoing extensive modernisation, but progress has been glacially slow. Whilst PNS Hamza was delivered in 2020 after its upgrade, the remaining two vessels continue to languish in extended maintenance cycles that have stretched far beyond original timelines.
The upgrade programme itself highlights Pakistan’s technological dependence, as the nation lacks the indigenous capability to maintain its most critical naval assets. The reliance on Turkish contractors for basic submarine maintenance exposes Pakistan’s industrial limitations and creates dangerous vulnerabilities in operational availability. This dependency has resulted in maintenance cycles that can stretch for years, leaving the fleet perpetually undermanned and operationally compromised.
Hangor Programme: A Delayed Promise
Pakistan’s hopes for naval modernisation rest heavily on the Chinese Hangor-class submarine programme, but this initiative has been plagued by delays and technical setbacks that further expose the nation’s naval vulnerabilities. Originally scheduled for delivery starting in 2023, the eight-submarine programme has missed all initial deadlines, with the first submarine only launched in 2024.
The programme faces a critical technical obstacle in the form of Germany’s refusal to export MTU 396 diesel engines, forcing Pakistan and China to resort to inferior Chinese-manufactured alternatives. Defence experts warn that these substitute engines produce significantly higher noise signatures, potentially making the submarines more detectable and compromising their stealth capabilities. Former U.S. Navy submariner Aaron Amick has described the Chinese engine as a replica of the German MTU 396, but with inferior materials and assembly standards, which lead to operational issues after short periods.
These engine problems represent more than mere technical difficulties; they fundamentally undermine the operational effectiveness of the entire Hangor fleet. The integration of substitute engines has caused significant delays in the programme timeline, with deliveries now pushed back years beyond original schedules. This delay means Pakistan will continue operating with a critically weakened submarine force for the foreseeable future.
Strategic Implications and Defensive Posture
Pakistan’s submarine crisis has profound implications for its maritime defence strategy, particularly given the nation’s stated reliance on underwater warfare as a cornerstone of its naval doctrine. The current operational reality leaves Pakistan virtually defenceless against sophisticated naval threats, with insufficient submarines to maintain continuous patrol coverage of its coastline.
The situation becomes more alarming when considering Pakistan’s broader naval limitations. The Pakistan Navy lacks aircraft carrier capability and relies heavily on foreign technology transfers for maintenance and upgrades. Over 75 percent of Pakistan’s defence imports between 2018 and 2022 came from China, creating dangerous dependencies.
Furthermore, Pakistan’s domestic shipbuilding infrastructure remains severely underdeveloped, forcing continued reliance on foreign partners for basic maintenance operations. This technological dependence means that Pakistan cannot independently sustain its submarine fleet, leaving it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and foreign pressure during critical periods.
The critical state of Pakistan’s submarine force represents a comprehensive failure of naval planning and resource management. With only two operational submarines and years of delays plaguing modernisation efforts, Pakistan’s undersea warfare capability has been reduced to a token presence that poses little credible threat to potential adversaries. The combination of ageing vessels, technical failures, and dependence on foreign technology has created a strategic vulnerability that fundamentally undermines Pakistan’s maritime defence posture. As regional tensions continue to escalate, Pakistan’s submarine crisis leaves the nation increasingly exposed to naval threats, whilst its much-vaunted submarine-centric strategy crumbles under the weight of operational reality.
