Originally published at : https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/abarometer-of-chinese-thinking-on-modi-s-visit-101756826209765.html
Before US President Donald Trump’s tariff testiness, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin was supposed to be a routine affair — handshakes, platitudes, and carefully choreographed photo-ops. But as the tariff war against India escalated, and New Delhi stood firm as a rock, the Chinese internet gave a grudging nod to India’s diplomatic high-wire act. While official headlines in Beijing followed prescribed formulas, it was clear from the buzz that Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi’s presence, after a seven-year gap, was a calculated gambit in the great power game.
The Chinese internet dissected Modi’s visit with the precision of a surgeon and the paranoia of a spymaster, noting PM Modi’s absence from China’s once-in-a-decade military parade that celebrates a victory against Japan and the avoidance of a special banquet or even a grand tour, even as he extended a cautious olive branch to China at the negotiating table. This caught nervous admiration in China. They called it a tightrope walk between defiance and pragmatism, a “masterful diplomatic manoeuvre” that left Beijing to decode the subtext, especially since Modi landed in China after a highly successful visit to Japan.
But Chinese analysts don’t shy away from saying that Make in India has to go hand in hand with Made in China. A constant catchphrase is that: “India may grow prickly on security, but it has to return to China’s table on trade”. Echoing the current official statements of both sides that no ‘third-party’ (read US) considerations were involved, some sane voices insisted that relations with India, despite external pressures, had their “own (internal) logic”. However, there was much speculation on Delhi’s multi-alignment that was apparent in the joint security declaration with Japan, continued engagement with Quad partners, and, in the same breath, signing the Tianjin Declaration. For the Chinese, this was unsettling proof of India’s diplomacy: Economy with China, security with the US and Japan. Beijing’s bloggers see India’s SCO engagement as a hedge, not a hug.
One issue that set the Chinese internet ablaze was the Taiwan question during Wang Yi’s visit to India. Beijing broadcast that New Delhi had reaffirmed the “One China Principle”. India’s quick clarification that ties with Taiwan — commercial, cultural, even semi-political — remained on track, deflated that claim. It was a reminder of the fault lines that run through India-China ties. Perhaps what India needs to do here is ask China to adhere to the One India principle and recognise India’s territorial sovereignty on Arunachal Pradesh, Aksai Chin, Pakistan-Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (that includes Gilgit-Baltistan) and Shaksgam Valley.
What stood out most in Chinese discussions was the question whether the Tianjin visit would be a blow to the US. This is Beijing’s perpetual obsession — finding signs that India’s partnership with Washington has limits. Chinese analysts tried to spin the visit as India needing Beijing more than the other way around. They were also quick to speculate if Modi’s visit was a “fatal blow” to Washington. The idea that India is pivoting to China to spite the US is a tantalising narrative in Beijing, even though most know it’s more wishful thinking than reality. Beijing’s broader gambit is to frame South Asia as a cohesive unit, free from “external interference”. It is the same rhetoric Wang Yi used in the Afghanistan-Pakistan-China trilateral context, during his swing through Kabul and Islamabad after visiting Delhi.
Chinese commentators were equally quick to point to Modi’s “joint statement” on the East China Sea and South China Sea during his visit to Japan, and the revision of their Joint Security Declaration for the first time in 17 years. This, followed by India signing the Tianjin Declaration, was seen as New Delhi’s “perfect balancing strategy” — leaning on China for economic heft while banking on the US and Japan for security. It’s a playbook that keeps Beijing guessing — and a little nervous.
The Chinese internet’s nervous chatter reveals how effectively India’s quiet confidence is setting the tone. Meanwhile, New Delhi’s message is clear and learns from past experience. Time and actions at LAC will determine a Tianjin thaw. Beijing’s nervous chatter is proof that India is playing the game well.
