After the exit of former Prime Minister, Shekh Hasina from Bangladesh, a number of developments have taken place in Dhaka’s foreign policy, some of which need close monitoring from India. One of them is the potential ‘thaw’ in Pakistan-Bangladesh ties which will have implications for India’s northeast region, Bay of Bengal (and hence Indian Ocean) and the regional balance in South Asia. Under Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh had emerged India’s biggest trade partner in the region with a total trade of $14 billion in 2023-24 while her government was sensitive to India’s security concerns. India and Bangladesh has stitched up a development partnership centred on connectivity, trade and people to people ties. In comparison, Hasina government had put the trauma faced by the people of Bangladesh in 1971 at the centre of its ties with Pakistan which has never apologised for the genocide and war crimes perpetrated by its Army in 1971. This meant that Islamabad-Dhaka ties were at their lowest point during the fifteen years of Hasina’s tenure. There was minimum contact on economic and political issues between Bangladesh and Pakistan; however, under the interim government headed by Dr Muhammad Yunus in Dhaka, there are clear attempts to reset ties between the two sides.
Early Efforts to ‘Reset’ Bangladesh-Pakistan Ties
Dr Yunus met Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif in Cairo in December 2024 where they agreed ‘to strengthen relations through increased trade and commerce; exchange of sports and cultural delegations’. However, there has been substantial progress in bilateral ties. After 15 years, the foreign secretaries met in Dhaka in April 2025. In May 2025, Pakistan’s FM Ishaq Dar spoke by telephone with Dhaka’s adviser Touhid Hossain, who “reaffirmed their mutual commitment to further strengthen bilateral relations.” In addition, the first cargo ship in decades sailed from Karachi to Chittagong in November 2024. Bangladesh imported 50,000 tonnes of rice from Pakistan in early 2025, its first-ever direct rice trade from Pakistan since Bangladesh’s separation from Pakistan in 1971. Direct flights between the two sides are expected soon while Bangladesh has relaxed visa rules for Pakistanis. Military contacts have been rekindled as in February 2025 Bangladesh Navy participated in a Pakistan’s multinational maritime exercise, Aman-25 focusing on regional cooperation. In January 2025, a senior Army officer from Bangladesh had visited Pakistan and interacted with its top military leadership as both sides agreed to shield their ties from ‘external influences’.
‘Indian Angle’ in Pakistan-Bangladesh Ties
Pakistan’s ‘anti-India’ orientation is part of its identity which is well known, however, voices from Bangladesh recently have made statements which seek to undermine India’s security concerns. Dr Yunus during his March 2025 visit to China had tried to position Bangladesh as ‘only guardian of ocean’ inviting China in the region. In his efforts to please the Chinese leadership, Yunus went on to add that India’s northeast was landlocked, although he could not explain the connection between his two remarks. Amidst India-Pakistan tensions before Operation Sindoor, a former Director General of the Bangladesh Rifles had said in his Facebook post ‘Bangladesh should consider occupying India’s northeast in coordination with China if India attacked Pakistan’. Dr Yunus ended up supporting Pakistan’s version of India-Pakistan ceasefire as he thanked the US President Donald Trump for his ‘mediation’, although India has maintained that the US had no such role. Bangladeshi hackers were involved in cyber attacks against Indian websites along with their Pakistani counterparts. Most of such provocations have come from Bangladesh which cast India in a negative role vis-a-vis Pakistan.
Implications for India
For India, there are three areas to monitor when it comes to new found synergy in Bangladesh-Pakistan ties.
The first is terrorism and security of northeast India. In August 2024, Yunus government freed Jashimuddin Rahmani, the chief of the Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), an al-Qaida-affiliated terrorist outfit. Next month, Rahmani asked West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee to “declare independence from Modi’s rule”. The extremist elements have been able to dominate the Yunus led care taker government and further dominance of such figures will pose security risks for India. There have been concerns in India that Islamist fundamentalist and militant groups in north-eastern states receive support from Pakistan via Bangladesh in form of training, sanctuary and weapons supplies. Increasing radicalisation in Bangladesh is likely to pose a ‘Two-Front’ terrorism problem to India in form of Pakistan in the West and Bangladesh in the East.
Second issue pertains to the regional security environment in the Bay of Bengal region, which is an important part of India’s Indo-Pacific understanding. This could also create problems in regional forums like the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) which had been so far free from influence of Pakistan and China. Yunus’s comments inviting China in the Bay of Bengal region are a pointer in this direction.
The third factor relates to regional balance of power in South Asia in which Bangladesh will not only cultivate closer ties with Pakistan but it could also facilitate other powers like China and Turkey which want to ensure Pakistan’s primacy in the region. China sells military hardware to both Pakistan and Bangladesh. Dhaka has recently bought drones from Turkey while it plans to buy tanks as well. Yunus has already sought more Turkish investments in Bangladesh. Turkey sees these developments as strategic opportunity in Bangladesh and a way to offset India’s Armenia strategic ties. It also fits in to the political agenda of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who sees Turkey as the ‘Caliph of the Islamic World’. The strategic game in South Asia is picking up with increasing involvement of China and Turkey. There are question marks over the so called ‘caretaker’ Yunus government and its intentions to hold on to power in Bangladesh. Things could potentially improve in case Bangladesh gets an elected government. The ongoing trends need a closer look from India and relevant policies should be put in place to tackle any challenges for India emanating from Bangladesh’s closer strategic proximity with Pakistan, China and Turkey.
