The Views expressed and suggestions made in the article are solely of the author and do not have any official endoresement.
Backdrop
The Recent Regime change in Dhaka is undeniably monumental, unprecedented and most significant for India and Bangladesh in multiple ways. While it marks the end of a golden era of bilateral relations for India, Bangladesh itself stands at a crucial socio-political crossroads where its people must make some fundamental choices for their future. The aftermath of political revolutions can go in numerous directions, from anarchy to consolidation of a new and broadly accepted political system, and everything in between.
Student movements are a classical manifestation of agitational dynamics of the Bangladeshi Social fabric ever since the days of the Language Movement of 1952 and the Liberation War where Dhaka University was at the epicenter for generating revolutionary ideas, initiating movement and even facing the brunt of oppression unleashed by then Pakistani dispensation. In the recent past, in April 2018, Student protests forced the Government to scrap the hugely disproportionate quota system. Student Against Discrimination (SAD) began as a movement for quota reforms in the wake of the High Court order of 05 June 2024 got interlaced with vested political interests, especially of BNP and Jamaat, and eventually turned into a mass uprising that led to the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina (SH). It is also believed to be impacted by external influences, especially from the USA[i].
An expected outcome is the emergence of anti-India and anti-Hindu sentiments in Bangladesh since SH is widely perceived as the face of India in Bangladesh. Her refuge in India has only added to the complexities. January elections this year boycotted by the opposition were perceived as rigged especially by the USA were sanctified by India. The reelection of SH for the fourth consecutive term sparked off an opposition-led campaign for a boycott of Indian goods. The situation had barely stabilized when the student protests for quota reforms began[ii]. Apropos; as the socio pol churning in unstable and chaotic neighborhood continues, it is crucial to visualize likely scenarios to revisit and recalibrate our foreign and national security policies. A peep into Bangladesh’s political journey, societal dynamics and review of actions by the interim Govt of Bangladesh thus far may defog certain issues.
A Faulty Start
The father of the ousted PM of Bangladesh, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman (SMR) was a popular charismatic and visionary Bengali nationalist who gave the clarion call of an Independent Bengali Nation. Eventually, Bangladesh came into being by a cesarean birth from Pakistan with efforts of Muktijoddhas or Freedom Fighters (mostly Awami League affiliates) assisted by the Indian might. SMR went on to lay the foundations of Bangladesh giving it a constitution based on four fundamentals Nationalism (Bengali Nationalism), Socialism (social justice and egalitarianism), Democracy (representative democracy) and Secularism. He is revered as Bangabandhu and Father of the Nation by most Bangladeshis. Unfortunately, Bangladesh seems to have had a faulty start and has been stumbling ever since. Faced with widespread protests and resentment against his nascent government in the backdrop of an unprecedented famine in 1974 leading to over 1.5 million (reports vary) deaths from hunger, SMR resorted to the formation of BAKSAL (Bangladesh Krishak Sramik Awami League), imposed emergency, outlawed all parties and created a Presidential form of Government. Jatiyo Rakhi Bahini a militia created by him to enforce socialist programmes enjoyed immunity from prosecution. Their malfeasance led to the growth of considerable anti-SMR sentiments. There were also allegations of nepotism and corruption within the Mujib family. All this eventually led to his assassination along with most of his family members (less two daughters who were out of Bangladesh) on 15 August 1975 by a group of disgruntled Bangladesh Army personnel. Ever since, the young Nation has had a history of monumental political upheavals including military interventions. Consequently, a democratic Nation State which its founding Fathers envisaged has remained fragile and elusive.
Brief Political History & Defining Impacts[iii]
Gen Zia Ur Rahman Mil Rule (1975-1981)
There were a series of coups and countercoups in the immediate wake of the assassination of SMR which eventually led to the calibrated rise of Gen Zia as President. He is widely believed to be the brain behind the plot to assassinate SMR. As President and CMLA, Zia passed a Presidential decree that removed Secularism from the preamble of the constitution and replaced it with ‘absolute faith and trust in almighty Allah’. He also formed the BNP to civilianize his rule.
Gen HM Ershad Mil Rule (1982 – 1990)
Ershad came to power in a bloodless coup citing grave pol, economic and societal crises. He was keen to include the military in local government. Through the 8th Amendment to the Constitution, he made Islam a state religion and made provision for setting up six permanent benches of the High Court outside Dhaka. BNP and Awami League (AL) joined hands to oppose the military rule eventually forcing Ershad to resign.
Khalida Zia (KZ) Govts
Elections in Feb 1991 widely regarded as free and fair brought to power KZ for her first term from 1991 to 96. However, Feb 96 elections were boycotted by AL which demanded a Caretaker Govt (CTG) headed by a Chief Administrator (CA) to hold free and fair elections. Eventually, through the 13th Amendment to the Constitution, a provision on nonpartisan CTG was made in Mar 96. Elections held under the first CTG in 1996 brought SH to power for the first time. Elections under the second CTG in 2001 brought KZ back to power. Her second term from 2001 to 2006 witnessed persistent protests by AL against the rigging of elections by the BNP, and significant deterioration of internal security due to the rise of the Islamist agenda spearheaded by Jamaat ul Mujahideen Bangladesh which sought imposition of Sharia Law. BNP cracked down on the Jamaat-led arrest of 100 senior and mid-level JMB cadres and the trial and execution of six top leaders of JMB.
Political Crisis (2006 – 2008)
Failure of BNP and AL to agree on a consensus CA led to the President becoming the CA. Their bitter rivalry led to serious deterioration in law and order eventually leading to military intervention to form a CTG headed by Fakhruddin Ahmed. At the behest of the military, CA initiated a massive anti-corruption drive and tried the minus two formula aimed at keeping both the Begums out of the political contest. However, CTG eventually buckled under domestic and international pressure. Elections in Dec 2008 regarded as free and fair brought SH to power for the second time in Jan 2009.
SH Govts 2009 – 2024
The first tenure of the Hasina Government saw the trial and eventual execution of 12 Army Officers involved in the assassination of SMR. In Feb 2010, except for part related to State religion, the Bangladesh Supreme Court declared the 8th amendment unconstitutional and restored the original four principles of the Constitution. It also proclaimed the 5th Amendment ratifying decisions of Zia as CMLA unconstitutional. Later in Oct 2010, the Bangladesh High Court ruled that Bangladesh is a Secular State. In 2011, the Supreme Court declared even the 13th Amendment (on the formation of CTG) unconstitutional. Elections in 2014, 2019 and 2024 are marred in controversies with boycotts by opposition and allegations of mass rigging. SH’s 15-year rule witnessed miraculous economic growth transforming the economy from aid dependence to trade-driven, astute balancing of engagements with China, India, Islamic Countries and the West. In her first term, SH reversed the policy of rendering support to Indian Insurgent Groups which enabled a turnaround of equations with India. Since 2009, India – Bangladesh relations witnessed a Golden period with booming economic cooperation, resolution of Boundary issues, infrastructure and people-to-people connectivity. India’s endorsement of the Jan 24 elections was at the cost of bilateral differences with the USA[iv].
Review of Actions by Interim Govt
CA Muhammad Yunus led Interim Govt has completed 100 days in Office. Ten reform commissions are pursuing reforms in respect of election management, police administration, judiciary, the Anti-Corruption Commission, public administration, financial sector and constitutional reforms. Law and Order situation albeit needing more stability has largely overcome the initial shocks of transition. There is a general acceptance of reforms before elections. A recent Voice of America Survey showed that three out of five respondents believe a good time to hold elections would be after a year or year and a half. However, people have reservations about the slow pace and also the fact that by nature Interim Government is transient. No guarantee subsequently elected government will not undo the reforms. While Yunus may not be anti-India, he is certainly anti-Hasina as he was persecuted during her regime. Besides, he seems to be playing into Islamist Agenda apparently at the behest of some student leaders. The Attorney General of Bangladesh has called for sweeping changes to the country’s constitution, including the removal of terms such as secularism, socialism and Bengali nationalism from the document. There is a concerted drive to reverse the decisions of the SH Government just as She had reversed the decisions of earlier Governments.
Yunus has also spoken for SAARC revival and more engagement with Pak. On 11 Nov, a Pakistan cargo ship docked in Bangladesh for the first time since 1971 indicating a revival of the direct shipping link with Pak. There is a significant surge in violence against minorities especially Hindus although Yunus brands it as motivated propaganda. On the economic front, the interim Government has negotiated a fresh $2 billion World Bank assistance in support of reforms but has failed to tame inflation which is at 10.67% and food inflation stands at 12.67%.
Key Drivers & Possible Scenarios
Battle of Identities
Bangladesh is besieged with a highly polarised socio-political fabric. While AL epitomized a Bengali identity interlaced with spiritualistic Islamic values. BNP and Jamaat profess Bangladeshi Nationalism and Islamist identity respectively. Root causes of polarization are issues related to identity and pro and anti-liberation belief systems based on the same. Religion-based identity was brought to the fore both by Zia and Ershad for political consolidation leading to the growth of a ritualistic Islamic culture. This, in turn, offers a fertile ground for radical ideologies to creep in whereas syncretic Bengali culture abhors violence[v]. Clearly, with the exit of AL from the scene, Bangladeshi and Islamic identities have come to the fore relegating Bengali identity as a priority.
Key Drivers
Yunus continues to enjoy popular goodwill and support both domestically and internationally. However, this will be contingent on the amelioration of economic woes, visible progress on reforms and Law and Order situation, backing from the military, student leadership and BNP – Jamaat the only remaining viable political force. AL is a grassroots party with a substantial cadre base capable of impacting the outcome, but it is unlikely to get back to the reins of Governance in the foreseeable future. External factors that would drive the outcome would be the role played by India, the US, China and the international community including the UN and aid/donor nations. Therefore, with time, Bangladesh may drift into varying possibilities.
S1 – Interim Govt Morphs into a Political Force
Yunus has been insisting on reforms before elections and may prolong his mandate. There were also some reports suggesting the possible formation of a political force devoid of the AL – -BNP binary by Student organisations. At the core of the SAD platform was the leadership associated with the Democratic Student Force. DSF launched on Oct 23 poised as a moderate democratic force that had a restructuring of the State and political system on its agenda. Incidentally, Yunus was offered to head the Army-backed CTG in 2007. However, he declined and started taking public opinion on launching a new political party called Nagrik Shakti (Citizen’s Force). Not finding enough takers he dropped the idea then[vi]. Yunus along with Student leadership may now have a vested interest and common ground in launching a new political force. As the Student leadership lacks enough political acumen and organizational abilities, buying more time would be logical for such a morphing to take shape. This could be one reason for his tacit support to Jamaat. It would preclude it from joining hands with BNP. Such an idea could only fructify if the interim government can boost up the sluggish economy languishing post-pandemic and student-led agitation by shoring business sentiment, and trade and generating administrative efficiency. Securing additional loans and developmental aids besides stable law and order are inescapable prerequisites. BNP, which at the moment is making the right noises would find causes to derail such a scenario as it would be an antithesis to their electoral prospects. Given Yunus’s US connection, a continuation of the Democrat Party in reins in the US would have been a significant enabler for this scenario. Notwithstanding, this scenario is not unlikely, perhaps a 5 out of 10.
S2 – Military in Saddle
Military especially the Army has played a pivotal role in the formation of the Yunus-led interim government. However, given the history, it could decide to be back in the saddle of governance should it see a dead end in the reform process, deterioration of law and order and economic situation. This scenario is not unlikely, perhaps a 4 out of 10
S3 – Islamic Republic of Bangladesh
This is a Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) led scenario. Jamaat is the largest Islamic political party in Bangladesh. Despite its history of being an active anti-liberation force during the Liberation War, it enjoyed political power through its alliance with both of the major political parties, AL and the BNP at different periods. It eventually ended up with the BNP as its primary ally after 2008 when AL charged it with war crimes. It was banned by SH on 01 Aug this year for inciting violence. Earlier in 2013, it was banned from contesting elections by the High Court as its charter violated the Secular constitution. Jamaat has been actively supporting the Interim Government. Interim Government in turn lifted the ban on the JEI that was imposed under an antiterrorism law. Uncontrolled violence against minorities especially Hindus, the Attorney General of Bangladesh called for sweeping changes to the country’s constitution, including the removal of terms such as secularism, socialism and Bengali nationalism giving credence to such a scenario. This scenario is not unlikely, perhaps a 4 out of 10. This scenario can also morph into BNP BNP-led and Jamaat-supported scenario which appears to be a likely scenario and can be placed as 6 out of 10. Unfortunately, this scenario may be the worst case for India. BNP-led dispensation earlier was decisively pro-China, and Pak and also supported IIGs.
S4 – Chaos Morphing Into Anarchy
In case barred from contesting elections and faced with continued reprisal, AL cadres may turn extreme and insurgent-like. This coupled with discontent amongst minorities and tribals in CHT could manifest a scenario of continuing deterioration of law and order. Eventually turning into an anarchy like Myanmar. This scenario is less likely, perhaps a 1.5 out of 10.
S5 – AL Back in Reins
Prolonged delay in holding elections, deteriorating law and order and worsening economic situation or perhaps a follow-up of anarchic scenario could bring AL back in reins. This scenario is least likely, perhaps a 1 out of 10.
Ethnocentric Perspective
Bangladeshis are free-spirited people and do not like to be patronized (Big Brother) especially by India although they respect and admire Indian democratic values. Surprisingly, the role of India in its liberation struggle is also not adequately acknowledged (less AL). They feel India has always looked at Bangladesh more from a security paradigm. People in Bangladesh appear to be excited about their prospects for reforms. They feel India must move beyond the liberation war and SH legacy and acknowledge the new reality. Anti-India and anti-Hindu violence though exaggerated by media is true but in large measures is also attributable to repressed feelings against the previous regime and perceived Indian support for it. In the words of Mahfuz Anam, Editor of Daily Star, a leading daily in Bangladesh, India must see Bangladesh as an aspiring democracy and not as the potential for religious extremism. Religiosity should not be mixed up with religious fundamentalism. SH was a boon in stabilizing Indian engagement with Bangladesh. However, it is widely perceived the contacts remained more G2G than P2P[vii].
Unlike Pakistan, where religious ideologies are central in shaping governance structures, Bangladesh’s identity is anchored in Bengali nationalism and cultural plurality. Bangladesh’s constitution uniquely balances secular principles with Islam as the state religion. If religion alone could shape a state’s trajectory, Bangladesh would not have parted ways with Pakistan[viii].
Conclusion
Bangladesh is India-locked, and India’s NE is Bangladesh-locked. The destinies of the two democracies are truly intertwined. While addressing the NDC batch of NDC at Mirpur, Dhaka in 2017, Late Gen Bipin Rawat made an interesting observation that the Bangladesh map emerges naturally while one draws an Indian Map.
Bangladesh is the most consequential neighbour for our multiple flagship initiatives in the form of Neighbourhood First, Act East, BIMSTEC and BBIN. It is a country in transition after a major surprise shock and needs a helping hand. Developments in Bangladesh are fast-paced post 05 Aug and merit a close watch. It is hoped that the Bangladeshi establishment will act in its enlightened national interest and preserve its cultural plurality, secularism and hard-earned freedom. It is heartening that the Attorney General’s call has mostly gone unheeded and the High Court turned down a plea to ban ISKON. Scenarios based on history, social fabric and actions of the interim government are intended to generate some clarity to shape the Indian policy outlook. The emergence of a third political force (S1) is desirable in current circumstances. However, S 3 is likely. India needs to exhibit strategic dexterity and support and temper its most crucial neighbour with an elder brotherly attitude and not act like a big brother. The former guides and supports the latter penalizes.
[i] Chakravarty, A. P. (2024, Nov 29). Biden Planned Dhakas Regime Change. ‘It’s Not Good For Us, Nor For Bangladesh’. (R. Sengupta, Interviewer) Strat News Global. Retrieved from https://stratnewsglobal.com/world-news/its-not-good-for-us-nor-for-bangladesh/
[ii] The Print. (2024, Nov 27). Episode 1561 of #CutTheClutter. Retrieved from The Print: https://theprint.in/world/@watch-cuttheclutter-100-days-of-yunus-govt-hindu-monk-arrest-delayed-political-reforms-in-bangladesh/2375803/
[iii] Singh, S. K. (2015). A Profile Bangladesh Rule By Two Queens. Delhi: Lenin Media, Delhi.
[iv] Datta, S. (2024, Jan 04). Opinion: India And US At Odds Over Bangladesh Poll. Retrieved from NDTV Elections: https://www.ndtv.com/opinion/india-and-us-at-odds-over-bangladesh-poll-4800549
[v] Kushwah, D. S. (2018). Reflections on Indo-Bangladesh Relations. USI of India, 75 – 83.
[vi] Bhattacharya, S. (Dec 2024). Roaring With Storm. Outlook, 7-9.
[vii] Riyad Mathew, N. B. (Aug 2024). Bangladesh Not Turining Into a Fundamentalist Country. The Week.
[viii] Khasru, S. M. (2024, Dec 05). Why Bangladesh is not Pakistan. Retrieved from The Indian Express: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/bangladesh-pakistan-iskcon-row-9702071/
