In recent decades, China has emerged not only as an economic power but also as a nation deeply engaged in rethinking the dynamics that shape global power. Rather than relying solely on traditional instruments of military might or conventional diplomacy, contemporary Chinese thought increasingly emphasizes the pivotal role of technology and industrial development in national strength. This perspective, widely reflected in academic and state security discussions, posits that the rise and fall of great powers are fundamentally determined by a country’s ability to harness advanced technologies and to drive productivity across its economy. China’s techno-industrial strategy, supported by the Total National Security Paradigm, aims to secure long-term national power through innovation, while navigating global competition and potential economic challenges.
Historical Lessons: The Blueprint of Power
Chinese historians believes in the ‘historical cycle of rise and fall’, where a dynasty rises to the top in culture, economy, and power and then ultimately falls. The same was also emphasised by Xi Jinping, in his report to China’s 2022 party congress. In the report, Xi declared that the ‘party has found a way to escape the cycle and that is through self-reform’. History provides numerous examples of empires that soared to global prominence by capitalizing on territorial assets, demographic strength, and abundant natural resources. Yet, a closer look at the trajectories of these great powers reveals that their ultimate ascendance was closely tied to their capacity for technological innovation and industrialization. The evolution from economies centered on light industries, such as textiles, to those capable of supporting heavy, capital-intensive sectors like steel production illustrates a clear developmental pathway. Once a nation builds the necessary educational and research infrastructure, it can transition into a hub for innovation and, eventually, global leadership in technology.
Chinese strategic analyses underscore that economic prosperity, fueled by technological advancement, is the engine that drives national power. The competitive edge on the international stage has consistently shifted toward those countries that can integrate cutting-edge technology into their national economies. In this view, industrialization is not merely an economic goal but a strategic imperative, a necessary condition for any nation aspiring to secure its place among the world’s great powers.
The Total National Security Paradigm
At the heart of contemporary Chinese thought is a comprehensive approach to national security. This integrated framework, often referred to as the Total National Security Paradigm, extends beyond traditional notions of defense to encompass every aspect of state activity, from economic policies and technological development to social stability and international influence. Developed over recent years, this paradigm is designed to guide policymakers and government cadres in minimizing risks and neutralizing threats across all domains.
Rather than compartmentalizing national security into discrete sectors, Chinese strategic thought now advocates for a holistic view. The emphasis is on ensuring that every facet of state governance contributes to building and maintaining a robust, technologically advanced economy. This approach reflects a clear recognition that in the modern world, military might, and diplomatic maneuvering are deeply intertwined with economic performance and scientific progress. The focus, therefore, is on long-term, sustainable development as the key to national rejuvenation.
Industrialization and the Power of Productivity
China’s journey from a period of relative poverty in the 1970s to its current status as a global economic leader is a testament to the power of industrialization. The nation’s leadership has consistently prioritized investments in education, research, and technological infrastructure. These efforts have allowed China to climb the industrial ladder, moving from basic manufacturing to sophisticated high-tech industries. The result is a vibrant economy that not only fuels domestic growth but also positions China as a key player in international trade and technological innovation.
By strategically investing in research and development, China has managed to integrate advanced science into every level of its economy. This focus on productivity has provided a foundation for economic growth, reinforcing the idea that national strength in the 21st century is less about territorial conquest and more about the ability to drive continuous technological progress.
Technological Competition on the Global Stage: China’s Strategic Priorities in 2024
In the evolving global landscape, the competition between nations is increasingly defined by technological supremacy rather than traditional military confrontations. For China, this shift has reinforced the strategic importance of technological leadership as both a safeguard against external vulnerabilities and a driver of national prosperity. Amid intensifying geopolitical tensions and escalating economic decoupling efforts led by the United States and its allies, China has doubled down on its efforts to achieve self-reliance in critical technologies.
The current technological race is centered on cutting-edge sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, renewable energy, and biotechnology fields that hold the potential to redefine both economic power structures and military capabilities. The emergence of AI-driven military applications, quantum-enabled cybersecurity, and next-generation chip fabrication has heightened the urgency for China to close technological gaps and mitigate external dependencies.
Learning from the Past, Shaping the Future
Historical case studies of former great powers provide a roadmap for understanding the dynamics of national strength. European empires, Japan’s post-Meiji industrial revival, and the Cold War-era competition between the United States and the Soviet Union all share a common thread: economic transformation driven by technological and industrial progress. In each instance, the failure to adapt to new technological paradigms resulted in stagnation or decline, while nations that successfully integrated industrial innovation into their strategic planning experienced significant rejuvenation.
Chinese analysts have distilled these lessons into a coherent framework that informs current policy. They assert that any country’s future is inextricably linked to its ability to master and implement new technologies. For China, this means ensuring that the economic policies, educational systems, and research initiatives are all aligned with the goal of sustaining long-term industrial growth. In doing so, the nation aims to avoid the pitfalls that have ensnared other countries, whether those be missed opportunities for industrialization or strategic missteps in the face of emerging technologies.
Navigating Future Challenges
While China’s progress in industrialization and technological innovation has been impressive, the nation still faces significant challenges on the road ahead. Achieving complete technological supremacy is an ongoing effort that demands sustained investment and a willingness to adapt to rapidly changing global trends. Moreover, as other nations also ramp up their industrial policies and technological capabilities, China must remain vigilant against complacency.
Future challenges will likely require China to broaden its strategic framework beyond the techno-industrial model. Integrating elements of military modernization, diplomatic agility, and internal social harmony will be essential to maintaining a balanced and resilient national strategy. In this context, the Total National Security Paradigm may need to evolve, incorporating lessons from a broader array of disciplines to address the multifaceted nature of modern power.
Conclusion
China’s strategic perspective on the rise of great powers is firmly rooted in a techno-industrial paradigm that emphasizes the centrality of economic productivity and technological innovation. Drawing on historical lessons and the experience of its own rapid industrialization, China has crafted a national security framework that integrates economic, technological, and strategic objectives. This holistic approach reflects a belief that the ultimate determinant of national strength is not just military might or diplomatic prowess, but the sustained ability to drive scientific and industrial progress.
As the international order continues to evolve, the Chinese model offers a distinctive blueprint for national rejuvenation, one that prioritizes long-term industrial growth and technological leadership over traditional, short-term measures of power. While this approach has already yielded remarkable dividends for China, the path to future supremacy will require continuous adaptation and a willingness to integrate new dimensions of power. In an era where the competition among nations is increasingly defined by the race for innovation, China’s commitment to a techno-industrial strategy may well shape the global balance of power for decades to come.
