The Afghanistan-Pakistan war is no longer about a contested border or countering TTP militants. Recently, it has become a zone of a worsening humanitarian emergency. In its pursuit of security through military force, border coercion, and mass deportations, Pakistan has transformed its western frontier into the world’s fastest-growing humanitarian catastrophe. According to Islamabad, its motivation is rooted in Counter Terrorism, but what it has translated to is escalating border military operations, forced refugee returns, and economic disruption as shrinking humanitarian assistance is converging into one of South Asia’s gravest crises, threatening both civilian well-being and regional stability.
A Security Strategy With Humanitarian Consequences
For years, Pakistan has justified its policy towards Afghanistan through the prism of national security. Following the return of the Taliban to power in 2021. Islamabad strived to have friendly relations with Kabul that would secure its borders and curb the activities of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a point of concern for Islamabad. When attacks surged in Pakistan, Islamabad alleged that the Taliban was harbouring TTP militants. When Islamabad was unable to compel the Taliban to act, Pakistan shifted its strategy. The strategy towards Kabul shifted from diplomatic engagement to military coercion and economic pressure. The cascading consequences of Islamabad’s decision have largely been borne not by militants but by Afghan civilians, the ones who find themselves caught in between a lack of security in matters of both internal and external governance.
Weaponising Refugees
The most visible manifestation of Pakistan’s coercion has been the mass expulsion of Afghan refugees. Since late 2023, Islamabad has launched one of its largest deportation drives in recent history. Afghan nationals, living in Pakistan for decades, faced arbitrary deportation, harassment, confiscation of property and livelihood, along with forced departures.
By mid 2026, this figure nearly accounts for 5.9 million Afghans returning from Pakistan and Iran, with Pakistan accounting for the largest share. The UN estimates nearly 2.7 million additional returns by 2026. The points of arrival for these refugees are Torkham and Spin Boldak, often without any possessions. For many returnees, return is questionable, for they find themselves coming back to a land where there are neither civil rights nor basic amenities of livelihood. Entire generations who were born in Pakistan find themselves without shelter, employment, or community networks inside Afghanistan. Hence, the international community must question how Islamabad’s policy of targeting terrorists and militants has transformed into a large-scale deportation policy. Shifting the burden of internal and external security crises onto one of the World’s most volatile regions.
Bombing Beyond the Border
Pakistan has increasingly carried out airstrikes and cross-border military operations beyond the Durand Line, inside Afghanistan. Justifying that these operations target TTP sanctuaries. However, Afghan authorities, the United Nations, and various humanitarian organisations have time and again documented civilian casualties, including women and children. Innocent civilians are witnesses to renewed internal displacement and lack access to basic facilities like food, water, hygiene, and most importantly, health care. Entire villages have been emptied following the deadly Pakistani air strikes, while fear of further military action has disrupted agriculture, schooling, and access across eastern Afghanistan. Military pressure has therefore created massive humanitarian displacement without demonstrating any evidence towards eliminating the insurgency threat.
Closing Afghanistan’s Economic Lifeline
Pakistan’s border policies have become another instrument of pressure, paralysing Afghanistan’s economy. Repeated closures of the Spin Boldak and Torkham crossings have gravely affected the life and livelihood of Kabul.
The consequences are immediate and grave
- Food prices rise
- Medicines become scarce or unavailable
- Interrupted fuel supplies
- Delay in humanitarian aid from both state and non-state actors.
- Exporters are losing access to Pakistan’s ports, which is necessary for a landlocked country like Afghanistan.
Islamabad is using border restrictions and economic coercion to systematically dismantle Afghanistan’s ability to respond to its aggression and shift the narrative in its favour. However, every prolonged closure is deepening food and civilian insecurity among millions already living below the poverty line.
Creating a Humanitarian Emergency
Pakistan’s policy has collided with Afghanistan’s already fragile humanitarian situation. What Kabul faces today: over 22 million people requiring immediate humanitarian assistance, around 17 million people are suffering acute food insecurity, and nearly 5 million women and children are expected to receive treatment for acute malnutrition. The multifaceted issue that Kabul faces today has stretched humanitarian agencies beyond capacity. Temporary shelters are overflowing, employment opportunities are scarce, water supplies are inadequate, healthcare systems are overwhelmed, and children are suffering. Pakistan may argue that refugee management is its sovereign right. Yet, the speed, scale, and coercive nature of the deportations are turning this sovereign right into large-scale human atrocities.
Collective Punishment, Not Counter Terrorism
Pakistan frames its policies as a necessary counter-terrorism measure. Still, its policies and measures resemble a form of collective punishment. Pakistan has disproportionately harassed civilians who bear no responsibility for militant violence. The humanitarian costs are insurmountable and detached from the security objectives that Islamabad is trying to achieve. Moreover, Pakistan’s posture strengthens the extremist organisation as they are known to thrive in the context of internal instability.
For a country that has sought strategic influence in Kabul, Islamabad’s current approach risks producing the opposite outcome: a poorer, more unstable neighbourhood whose humanitarian collapse will inevitably spill back across the border. This is a crisis manufactured by policy.
