After a long uncertain period of two months since the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on 30th July followed by the assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrullah on 27th August, Iran, under tremendous pressure at home and from allies facing setback after setback in recent weeks, struck Israel directly with a barrage of almost 180-200 missiles on 1st October. Many of these missiles were intercepted but adequate numbers found their mark, not only causing damage in Israel but also delivering a stern message that Israel’s methods of provoking escalation through targeted strikes and assassinations will not go unanswered. Israel has, as expected, vowed revenge with PM Netanyahu stating that Iran made a big mistake and Iran will pay a price for its missile barrage.
With this strike, Iran has successfully halted the free run which Israel has enjoyed for almost two months in the Gaza war, expanding the war to new areas and delivering huge setbacks through targeted strikes on senior leadership in Iran and its proxies.
The Buildup to it
The war in Gaza which broke out on 7th October 2023, is due to complete one year shortly. During this period, through a sustained battle of attrition Iran has fought through its proxy groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis etc and have prevented Israel from achieving its war objectives. However, the developments over the past fortnight have delivered huge setbacks to the ‘Axis of Resistance’. Hezbollah, in particular, has been the focus of Israeli attacks since 17th September. Unrelenting attacks on it resulted in complete elimination of its top-level leadership, destruction of its communication network and shattering of confidence in its cadres.
On the Hamas side too, there have been continued losses. Their political chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran on 30th July and his successor and the military leader, Yahya Sinwar, too is missing for last few weeks. On the West Bank side, Israeli operations in Jenin Camp and Nablus since 27th August have inflicted huge losses to Palestinian Islamic jihad (PIJ) and its allied groups.
As a result, Israel was in a clear state of ascendency while Iran backed groups were in a complete disarray and low on confidence. Iran, which has been supporting these groups as well as providing them weapons and equipment, too found itself in a complete state of confusion and a dilemma on how to regain the momentum and loss of face.
Over the past one year, with most of the Arab countries in the region, especially Saudi Arabia and UAE, taking an ambivalent position in the war and watching it from the sidelines, it was left to Iran to take over the mantle of leadership in this war. In doing so however, it refrained from getting directly involved in the conflict in the initial phase. It was only when its consulate was attacked in Damascus on 1st April that it decided that it was time to shed its ‘strategic patience’ and take revenge directly. Accordingly, on 13th April, Iran struck Israel with a swarm of over 200 drones and missiles. While most of them were intercepted, thanks in large part to Iran itself forewarning the US and countries in the region, a few did land and cause some damage. Israel too retaliated immediately but the tit-for-tat strikes ended with Iran stating that any future attack on its territory or assets will be met with equal and direct response.
Having announced such a deterrence, Iran was shocked when Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in a high security zone in Tehran on 30th July when he was a state guest for the swearing in ceremony of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. On the same night, in Beirut, a precision strike from the air took out a senior Hezbollah military commander Faud Shukra. And in Damascus, Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Forces of Iran too was eliminated on the same night. Three key assassinations across three capitals in the region, all close allies of Iran, was a direct dare at Iran and hugely escalatory in nature to say the least.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed revenge for Haniyeh’s killing, stating that it is “our duty to seek revenge for his blood as he was martyred in the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Weeks went by, the US moved two aircraft carrier groups into the region to assist Israel, but the Iranian retaliation did not come by. While all the eyes were on Iran, Israel quietly upped the ante and moved its forces first into the West Bank on 27th August and thereafter shifted focus towards the North to take on the threat from Hezbollah. In a matter of 10 days from 17th to 27th September, Israel not only eliminated Hassan Nasrullah, Hezbollah charismatic leader but crippled their entire command, control and communication network. Apart from huge losses in the battlefield, these developments caused major embarrassment to the Iranian establishment.
A stern test for the Supreme Leader
It is a well-established fact that security policies and national strategy are run through the office of the Supreme Leader. Over the past few years, he has however been subjected to setbacks after setbacks. When IRGC commander Qaseem Suleimani was assassinated in January 2020, it was a major setback as he was considered a hero in Iran and very close to the Supreme Leader. Iran vowed revenge but did not take any action against the US which had carried out this attack. The recent killing of Hezbollah chief has to be the biggest blow to him as he too was a close confidant (some say he was like a son) and the most important key in coordinating Iran’s military strategy across the Levant. The unfortunate death of Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May was a huge blow to the Supreme Leader as he was not only being projected as the next Supreme Leader by many but was a key to success of Iran’s strategy in the Gaza war. The presidential elections thereafter threw a surprise for the regime when the hardliner Saeed Jalili was defeated by a reformist Masoud Pezeshkian.
Also, the Supreme Leader has already crossed the age of 85 years this year and has not yet appointed successor. This, coupled with the setbacks in the region, made things only worse for the regime’s future in Iran.
Adding to it, President Pezeshkian’s statement on 29th September stating that “the Western leaders had promised Iran a ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for Iran not attacking Israel over the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, but they lied” was being seen as lame and weak and one of the key reasons for killing of Hezbollah chief. People on the streets were calling for his resignation saying that if Iran had retaliated after Haniyeh’s death, Israel would not have dared to kill Nasrullah.
Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s statement that the head of an Iranian secret service unit set up to target Mossad agents turned out to be an Israeli agent himself, too caused huge uproar and further embarrassment.
However, the final trigger for Iran launching the strike was perhaps the directly televised address to the Iranian people by Israel’s PM Netanyahu on 30th September where he called for a regime change, instigating the people of Iran against the leadership. Already under pressure for inaction and looking weak, this address would have been seen as a grave insult by the Iranian leadership.
What Next for Iran
It is clear that Iran was forced to undertake the strike mission under extreme provocation. In the past few weeks, its cadres and proxies were feeling let down but more importantly Israel was emboldened to expand its war objectives. Israel was keen on taking advantage of the war situation to consolidate its gains and end the threat to its borders from all sides, once and for all.
With Gaza completely decimated and the West Bank almost completely occupied, the only remaining threat to Israel thereafter is from Hezbollah in the north and Israel is keen to push Hezbollah northwards of the Litani River, to establish a deep buffer zone for the safe return of its settlers in the North. The limited ground operations into Lebanon, launched on 30th September, are aimed at this objective.
By undertaking the retaliatory strike on 01st October, Iran has definitely put a halt to the free run that Israel has enjoyed in the war over the past two months. It has salvaged a bit of its pride and boosted the confidence of its cadres and proxies in the region, but it has also opened the doors for a huge escalation in the region. Israel has vowed revenge and the US president has pledged support, stating that Israel has a right to respond and that it should be a proportional response. As Israel finalises its options and plans for the counter-retaliation on Iran, the coming days and weeks will tell us whether this episode of retaliatory strikes between Iran and Israel will end after a brief spat like in April, or whether the region will be in the middle of an unprecedented and bloody conflict.
