Abstract
Myanmar’s post-2021 civil unrest has laid bare the country’s fragility and the challenges it poses for the security of its neighbours. China shares a long border with Myanmar’s restive Shan and Kachin states. These states are home to dozens of Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) that challenge the authority of Myanmar. All the EAOs are predominantly non-Bamar, minority-led armed organisations seeking some form of autonomy from the state. China, because of its geographical proximity and geopolitical interests, deals with these EAOs using a variety of instruments, both accommodative and coercive. This issue brief aims to decipher the aspect of China’s relations with Shan and Kachin-based EAOs. What are the key instruments and leverage that are used by the Chinese since 2021? What is the nature of these ties? The brief argues that the ties between China and EAOs are not unilateral, where China has all the leverage. Instead, the relationship can be best described as asymmetrical interdependence where EAOs also exercise limited agency. By examining China’s engagement with EAOs, the brief identifies policy lessons for Indian decision-makers.
Keywords: China-Myanmar Relations, Ethnic Armed Organisations, Shan State, Kachin State, Multi-Actor Diplomacy, Borderland Security, Chinese Leverage, China-Myanmar Economic Corridor
