Originally Published: https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/punish-pakistan-for-pahalgam-with-exacting-finesse-101745587467464.html
Anger against Pakistan is building in India following the dastardly terror attack in Pahalgam in which 26 civilians were killed; the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) issued a strong statement. That anger is unsurprising given the brutality of the attack. In Pakistan, major commentators accuse India of “false flag” operations, by which they make the outrageous allegation that India orchestrated the attack to implicate Islamabad. This is an indication of a Pakistan army general running around in circles. Clearly, they are expecting the worst.
t is perhaps also time to issue an open call for support to the long-oppressed Balochs and Pashtuns, who never wanted Pakistan. This cannot be an imitation of Pakistan’s underhand tactics. It has to be an open, declared support (PTI)
The statement of the CCS ticked the expected boxes. Pakistan’s military advisors as well as other support staff have been ordered to leave India even as 14-odd officials of the Pakistan High Commission itself remain, including the charge d’affaires. That puts the blame squarely on Pakistan’s military establishment. The closing down of the Attari checkpost and suspension of any remaining visa protocols were also expected. The high-impact lever pulled was also not entirely surprising. Late last year, New Delhi refused to have any more meetings of the Indus Water Commission till the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was renegotiated.
Pakistan has been using the IWT to delay hydropower projects in India, citing the flimsiest of reasons. The treaty has a three-tier dispute mechanism that includes dialogue between designated commissioners; when that fails, a neutral expert is appointed by the World Bank, which brokered the treaty in 1960. If that doesn’t work, a court of arbitration may be set up. In the 1970s, India was forced to lower the height of the Salal dam and plug its outlets, leading to heavy silting and erosion of the dam’s utility. In another instance, the Baglihar dam suffered a delay of 14 years. The Kishenganga project had it worse, with Pakistan going to the arbitration level even while the Bank-appointed neutral expert was examining the matter. Pakistan is the 15th most water-stressed country in the world. Yet, India has only held the treaty “in abeyance”. Responsible minds on the other side of the border should understand this nuance.
However, none of this will assuage the rage in India. The CCS statement says, “As with the recent extradition of Tahawwur Rana, India will be unrelenting in the pursuit of those who have committed acts of terror or conspired to make them possible.” That’s an interesting framing, considering it took India 16 years to bring him to book. The Prime Minister has since, speaking very deliberately in English in Bihar, said: “India will identify, track, and punish every terrorist and their backers. We will pursue them to the ends of the Earth.” That seems to indicate a long period of punishment. For domestic audiences, he added that Pakistan’s punishment would be worse than it could possibly imagine.
So, what is possible here? A sneak Balakot-type attack is not possible. This time, the Pakistan army is on full alert. The obvious alternative is the use of Brahmos missile with its 290-km range for an attack from within India, with the target being identified terrorist camps across the Line of Control (LoC). That is an area that India claims, so it is not technically an attack against Pakistan. The more desirable target however is Muridke, the heartland of Lashkar-e-Taiba’s operations, and close to Lahore, roughly 30 km from the Indian border. It can even be hit using armed drones, allowing precision and no collateral damage.
Either is an act of war, no matter how justifiable. There is no doubt whatsoever that the Pakistan army will retaliate. After Balakot, it did a carefully calibrated attack that registered a response without doing much damage. That was due largely to then Pakistan army chief general Qamar Bajwa, a realist who had proposed trade across Pakistan to India, for the country’s own advantage. But, the current chief, general Asim Munir, is no wise strategist. That means war, with all its escalatory possibilities. India can afford it, though it’s the most wasteful of expenditures, especially when you are import-dependent for weapons.
New Delhi wants economic growth, not war. Pakistan really can’t afford a war. And it is not just about whether the International Monetary Fund will ever look kindly at such expenditures. One reality is that the country’s oil refineries are in a crisis, leading to a severe shortage of jet fuel, and none of the six major refineries have delivered over the last nine months. No country with an iota of sense will launch a war with iffy probabilities of having to import vital fuel. But it seems Pakistan wants to draw India into a war. It has nothing to lose. Less “showy” is the alternative of opening artillery fire across the LoC. That is not a one-way street and has costs for civilians on our side as well. Apart from that, the utility of the whole exercise is questionable. Terrorists sneak in anyway.
New Delhi should guard against being pushed into a direction of Pakistan’s choosing. Instead, it can choose punishment with far more finesse. For too long, everyone has accepted Pakistan sponsoring terrorism left and right. Afghanistan has little leverage, but we do. It is time to demand that concerned countries sanction Pakistan until it is brought to its knees. Sanctions should target the Pakistan army, in particular. No more cosy trips abroad, delegations calling on Rawalpindi, and ending all external funds, including those from international financial institutions.
Yes, many a country will not join, with China being the first however much it dislikes terrorism. But enough could. It is perhaps also time to issue an open call for support to the long-oppressed Balochs and Pashtuns, who never wanted Pakistan. This cannot be an imitation of Pakistan’s underhand tactics. It has to be an open, declared support calling upon the world to pitch in. Instead of blood for blood, let us give them freedom from terror. Enough is enough; it is time to cut Pakistan to size, quite literally.
