Originally published at : https://www.ndtv.com/opinion/trump-and-india-when-terrorists-are-easier-to-deal-with-than-tariffs-8922649
Weeks after the Indian media engaged in a shrill diatribe against US President Donald Trump for claiming that he had ended the escalation between India and Pakistan in the aftermath of Operation Sindoor, the public sentiment against the US seems to be softening, thanks to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announcing that the State Department is going to designate the Terrorist Resistance Front (TRF) as a terrorist organisation, with a specific reference to the Pahalgam attack. That’s a handshake of no mean order, especially after a series of western ‘analysts’ had desired ‘proof’ of the outfit’s involvement in the attack.
All this, of course, occurs in parallel with Trump apparently threatening a 100% secondary tariff on anyone who trades with Russia. But hold on. That is a reference to a proposed legislation supported by both political parties, which demands that 500% tariffs be levied on states trading with Russia – India included. So, the ‘tariff man’ is being outpaced by his own Congress. Things are not always what they seem.
TRF Gets A Handle
First, the designation of the TRF as a ‘Specially Designated Global Terrorist’ has been welcomed by Foreign Minister Jaishankar as a “strong affirmation of Indo-US Counter terrorism cooperation”, as indeed it is. Earlier, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri had stated that India’s efforts at the United Nations to get a similar listing had been blocked by Pakistan, and even a reference to it removed from a press statement by the Security Council on Pahalgam. So, the US move is not something to be set aside lightly.
The TRF is an interesting entity. It announced its presence on encrypted platform Telegram after the abrogation of Article 370 and when the Lashkar-e-Taiba took a back seat due to pressure from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The TRF’s name and imagery seems carefully chosen to avoid any “radical” religious flavour, as also to position itself as indigenous. But a series of attacks it has claimed, including against Makhan Lal Bindroo, a popular owner of a medical shop, as well as those against Sikh and Hindu schoolteachers, were clearly aimed at creating communal tensions. The outfit also threatened journalists and released ‘lists’ of those it was prepared to kill. Notably, the TRF was the first terrorist group to launch a twin drone attack, on the Jammu air base in 2021.
In the Pahalgam incident, the group again claimed the attack on Telegram but back-tracked three days later as it became apparent that India was on the warpath and that the UN was getting ready to release a resolution. Unlike the LeT, the leadership of the TRF is diffused back in Pakistan, and their ‘assets’ are unknown. But their leaders in Pakistan have known and long-time Lashkar affiliations. One of them, Abu Qatal, who was shot in March this year in Jhelum, uses the same infiltration routes and is part of the United Jihad Council.
So, if it walks, talks and looks like the LeT, it should be the LeT. The designation there is uncomfortable business for Rawalpindi – the now-famous ‘lunch’ of Field Marshal Asim Munir with Trump notwithstanding.
Working Groups Are Working Hard
Now consider this. Just days earlier, on July 16, the Wavelength Forum held in New Delhi brought together Quad partners to strengthen subsea cable connectivity and resilience across the Indo-Pacific region. Organised under the US State Department’s ‘CABLES’ programme, it highlighted the critical role of subsea cables in supporting the global digital economy and the importance of using trusted vendors for construction, maintenance, and repair. That underlined India’s growing importance as a digital hub accounting for some 20% of global internet traffic, and the common concerns of members. This delivered on the Quad foreign ministers’ joint statement, which itself was short and crisp, unlike the usual long-winded and fuzzy documents earlier. It announced the first Quad Critical Minerals Initiative, the first Quad Indo-Pacific Logistics Network field training exercise, and a Quad Ports of the Future Partnership in the works. Separately, a read-out of the meeting between Foreign Minister Jaishankar and Defence Secretary Peter Hegseth was rich in content, noting ‘dangers of aggression in the ‘Asia Pacific’ (a rather surprising nomenclature). Coming up is the signing of the next 10 Year Defense Framework, and progress on advanced technology policy reviews, which will take forward the landmark INDUS-X which has brought together innovators to US shores, as well as the launch of the Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance (ASIA), where our own innovators are racing ahead.
Earlier, even as Operation Sindoor was unfolding, the Quad was holding a tabletop logistic exercise in Hawaii, while a joint working group on Aircraft Carrier Technology cooperation was held in May even as the operations wound down. In sum, there are more areas of cooperation that can be listed easily. And that’s an ongoing process, set in place years ago, with the US administration showing every inclination to push all of this harder and faster.
That Public Glitch
Now consider the brouhaha on tariffs, which are announced with much fanfare even as a trade deal is being hinted at. That is not going to be easy as Trump wants access to agriculture, a sensitive area of Indian politicians and a huge voter base. True also that a bill sponsored by Senator Lindsey Graham, widely credited with urging a change of heart to Pakistan under Imran Khan, has sponsored a bill calling for the President to “increase the rate of duty on all goods and services imported into the United States from countries that knowingly engage in the exchange of Russian-origin uranium and petroleum products to at least 500% relative to the value of such goods and services; that’s the Trump administration’s effort to get Russia to stop a wasteful and vicious war”.
In Sum…
Much can be said about this pointless arm-twisting of countries like India, which did not start the war and have their own populations to think of in terms of inflation from rising oil prices. But the point is, relations between countries are not one composite whole. One may differ violently with one issue even while cooperating closely on another.
True, with the Trump administration, there is a deliberate public confrontation in policy, but bureaucracies work quietly behind the scenes on sorting out issues with a country that is otherwise a ‘Major Defence Partner’, which for the first time, is becoming a two-way street. In other words, it is profitable for US companies to work here in this and other fields. It’s a slow journey, but it’s got to a place where a certain velocity has been achieved. After all, this is a path undertaken since at least George W Bush’s days. The dangers of Trump linking trade with almost everything else persists – like pushing Apple to set up shop elsewhere – but the core relationship is in place.
That, in turn, is based on one unchanging principle of US policy; which is never to allow another country to overtake it. As China grows in absolute terms, that is one fundamental that will determine relations with India. The danger is that there are also those in Washington who see India as growing too fast for comfort. US bureaucracy would ideally like all ‘partners’ to just roll over and play dead. Delhi is hardly in that league, and is a hitch that needs careful manoeuvring. Think of a certain ‘warming’ of relations with China recently. It’s a dangerous game, but it seems the present dispensation seems confident. There are squalls ahead.
Meanwhile, prepare to open all sluices as the Quad summit comes up.
