Abstract
The research article analyses how Western sanctions, imposed after Russia’s Ukraine invasion, accelerated Moscow’s dependence on China, especially in sectors like energy, finance and defence technology. It traces the evolution of Russia–China bilateral relation ‘from rivalry to cautious cooperation’ and argues that this shift could reshape the regional balance, particularly by increasing China’s access to Russian military knowhow.
As for the implications of these growing ties and dependence, the study discusses both risks and opportunities for India. The main risks are disruption to Russian-origin defence supplies, reduced diplomatic space and possible Chinese gains in military capability. At the same time, Russia is still expected to retain some interest in balancing ties with India, especially after the Ukraine conflict ends.
The paper concludes that India should not abandon its policy of strategic autonomy, but should recalibrate it through diversification, defence self-reliance, stronger border infrastructure and broader partnerships with the US, Europe, Japan, ASEAN and others. It argues that India must hedge carefully, preserve its leverage with Russia and strengthen its long-term security posture in an increasingly uncertain global order. This paper aims to understand the implications of a deepening China-Russia ties and growing dependency of Russia on China for India, especially in the defence sector and the steps that needs to be taken by India to counter these challenges. The paper has been formulated based on the views of Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) {Defence experts and practitioners, who have either studied or have tenanted positions that gave them a deep understanding of Indo-China, Indo-Russia and China-Russia relations}.
Keywords: Deepening Russia-China Ties, Indo-China Relations, Indo-Russia Relations
