Europe’s security is entering a new phase and becoming more uncertain as the war in Ukraine continues. The war in Ukraine has created significant challenges for energy security and is pushing European countries to strengthen defence capabilities, creating a mounting challenge for the European Union. The war, which has continued for more than four years, has become a strategic problem for European nations in terms of protecting their borders, securing energy supplies and maintaining economic stability. The question is no longer just about supporting Ukraine. It has shifted to how Europe can secure itself in a fragile geopolitical environment.
Since the launch of the full-scale Russia-Ukraine war, the continuing conflict has transformed European foreign and security policy. European countries have firmly supported Ukraine and provided financial, military and humanitarian assistance. However, Moscow’s new doctrine of airstrikes targeting Ukrainian civilians and the energy grid at a broader level ahead of the winter season is creating further security concerns. Ukraine, in response, has vowed to counter-attack Moscow’s oil refineries. In a statement, Zelensky said, “but we will not respond, of course, just like them, on any civilian objects”.
These attacks are not only affecting Ukraine. Damage to energy infrastructure can have wider consequences for electricity supplies, heating, industry and the Ukrainian economy, while continuing attacks are increasing the humanitarian and financial pressure on Kyiv.
European countries, including Germany, France, the UK and others, have continuously remained supportive of Ukraine amid escalating attacks on Ukrainian cities. Germany especially announced a new support package worth more than €1.3 billion, including €1 billion in military aid and additional support for Ukraine’s energy sector. The package also includes funding to produce new interceptor drones capable of countering Russia’s jet-powered attack drones. Germany also promised to provide €350 million for repairs to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
This support shows that European countries are increasingly viewing Ukraine’s security as closely connected to their own security. The longer the war continues, the more difficult it becomes for European governments to separate support for Ukraine from their wider defence concerns.
Similarly, the United States is playing an important role in diplomatic efforts to end the conflict, pushing for a ceasefire between the two sides, although a lasting agreement still appears difficult. Washington has also been pressing Ukraine to refrain from striking Russian energy facilities as part of efforts toward an energy truce. Trump pushed Ukraine to refrain from striking Russian energy facilities, ensuring Ukraine’s willingness to participate in peace talks, while Russia has yet to clearly commit to a reciprocal pause.
The proposed energy truce is part of wider diplomatic efforts involving the US, Russia and Ukraine. However, the possibility of a lasting ceasefire remains uncertain because of continuing disagreements between Moscow and Kyiv over territory, security guarantees and the future relationship between the two countries.
Alongside this, India too has continued to push for a “mutually acceptable solution” between Kyiv and Moscow to end the conflict. In his statement, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar stated that “Our position on that conflict has been very clear, which is that we would like to see an end to this conflict. This will require dialogue and diplomacy”. India’s position reflects its continued emphasis on dialogue and diplomacy, while its engagement with both Russia and Ukraine gives New Delhi a different diplomatic position from many Western countries.
However, ahead of peace talks, Europe is witnessing another major security risk emanating from energy.
Russia’s massive drone strikes and ballistic missile attacks targeting Kyiv and other Ukrainian regions, including energy infrastructure, are having consequences beyond Ukraine. Energy has taken centre stage in Europe’s security debate. Europe, which is heavily dependent on foreign energy supplies, saw the risks of this dependency after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. European countries subsequently backed reducing their dependence on Russian energy and supported the diversification of their energy resources.
However, energy markets remain vulnerable to geopolitical tensions, disruptions and sudden price increases. The conflict involving Iran and the disruption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz have further exposed Europe to the possibility of soaring global energy prices.
As Europe’s energy demand is about to increase in the coming months, this is creating political pressure on governments to balance their needs during the heating season with inflation, which had already increased by 3.8 percentage points due to higher energy costs.
The EU is not currently facing an immediate energy shortage. Its gas storage stood at around 70 per cent capacity in late September, but about 12 percentage points below the level recorded the previous year, which is somewhat concerning. Therefore, the EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen urged governments to consider measures to reduce energy demand. He suggested measures such as “limiting temperatures in public buildings, preventing outdoor heating and switching off unnecessary public lighting” so that Europe can reduce gas and electricity demand and preserve supplies for as long as necessary.
Therefore, the energy question is no longer only an economic issue. It is increasingly becoming a security issue that is directly linked to defence. Europe is already revamping its defence mechanisms and prioritising sufficient military capacity of its own. Governments are investing in ammunition, drones, air-defence systems, intelligence capabilities and military infrastructure. Europe’s defence spending, which already increased to €418 billion in 2025, is expected to reach an estimated €454 billion in 2026, reflecting an increase of 8.6 per cent from the previous year and a 75.3 per cent increase since 2021. The EU’s defence spending figures show how quickly European countries are increasing their defence expenditure.
Thus, rebuilding defence capabilities will take time and investment. Therefore, European countries must ensure that their defence spending meets the demands of the current security environment without jeopardising their ability to respond to future economic and security crises. The increased defence spending is also putting pressure on energy demand. Europe is already facing high energy prices, while expanding defence facilities and increasing military production can create further demand for energy supplies, raw materials and industrial capacity.
European countries are therefore facing much higher risks than before. NATO has agreed to work towards a 5% of GDP annual investment target by 2035, including at least 3.5% for core defence and up to 1.5% for broader security-related spending. At the same time, EU defence spending by major countries such as Germany, France, Italy and others, within the framework of the ReArming Europe, along with their aid and support to Ukraine, is putting more pressure on national budgets amid the unfolding crises. Following the conflict in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the EU has spent over an extra $113.5 billion on energy imports.
Therefore, it is high time for the EU to set ambitious targets and for European countries to establish clear strategic priorities. Europe needs stronger defence capabilities because the security environment has deteriorated. It needs secure and affordable energy to maintain economic stability. And it needs economic strength to continue supporting Ukraine and investing in defence. In this regard, these interconnected issues can no longer be treated separately.
Different member states have different economic conditions, energy needs and attitudes towards defence spending. This makes a common European strategy more difficult, but at the same time, more necessary. Europe therefore needs to look beyond short-term crisis management.
Supporting Ukraine, securing energy supplies and strengthening defence capabilities should not be treated as three completely separate policies. They are increasingly becoming part of the same security equation. The central question is whether Europe can turn the current crisis into a long-term strategy. Rather than responding separately to war, energy insecurity and military threats, European countries may need to develop a broader security policy that connects all three.
Europe’s future security will depend not only on how much it spends on defence, but also on whether it can maintain reliable energy supplies, protect its economy and sustain its support for Ukraine.
