Introduction
Myanmar is an important South East Asian country bordering India, China, Laos, Thailand and a coastline in the Bay of Bengal. Myanmar was part of the British empire and got independence in 1948. The country prior to independence had deep connections with the Indian part of the British empire. Myanmar is known as ‘The Gateway’ or ‘The Bridge’ to South East Asia. Being a meeting point of India, China and SE Asia, the region had been underdeveloped, heavily forested, mountainous and populated by ethnic tribe which influences the region heavily in terms of ethnic identity and their homelands which happen to be extending on either side of the modern state borders.
Background and Importance for India
Historically the erstwhile kingdom of Manipur had been engaged in warfare with the Myanmar kingdom particularly the Kabaw Valley had been a bone of contention between Manipur and Myanmar. In addition to this the country shares a porous border with India and large number of ethnic tribes have their relatives and folks both side of the border. This separation of the ethnic tribes particularly Kuki-Chin has created a peculiar situation for both the countries which both the countries tried to solve by giving free movement to tribal population within a distance of 16 km from the border but was rescinded after the 2023 riots and allegations of weapons and other support coming to the warring parties. These tribes have various issues concerning their affairs with both India and Myanmar and these tribes have taken up arms against the military and police forces of both the countries to meet their demands and aspirations.
Internal situation of Myanmar
Historically Myanmar is a democracy but have been under military rule for a substantial part of its independent history. Myanmar’s instability amid civil war to establish a string of scam centres engaged in global online fraud operations (Fong & McGowan, 2024). It is also attributable to weak governance in the region and adjoining countries like Cambodia.
The situation in Myanmar post elections presents India with important strategic opportunities mixed with diplomatic, humanitarian and security challenges (D Singh, 2026). Post elections President, Min Aung Hlaing chose India for his first official foreign visit— from 30 May to 03 June 2026 and signing various agreements to include border security, connectivity, trade, energy, mining, critical minerals, education and development cooperation. However, post elections, the situation remains disturbed in the country marked by armed resistance, ethnic conflict, economic contraction, displacement, international criticism, and legitimacy of electoral process (D Singh, 2026). Poor governance and weak institutions and biased armed forces have led to the growth of scam centres targeting the American public, arming of various insurgent organisations in the region, and that target Americans and Europeans with the help of workers working under duress.
Importance for India
Myanmar have historical and cultural connections with India. Both the countries have been active member of the non-aligned movement. As stated above the democratic quotient of Myanmar have been low leading to the Northern and Western areas bordering India and China being ungovernable and the influence of various state and non-state actors being high with the arms smuggling and the drugs trade.
These conditions are also ripe for inciting violence and use of arms to contest internal issues in Manipur thereby creating a situation where the state have to use coercive measures to bring peace and stability in the state. The porous borders and the ample supply of drug money and weapons from China and other sources create a critical situation for India and the internal situation in Manipur becoming grim.
Recent USA Myanmar interactions
The recent talks between the USA and Myanmar are the reengagement of the USA with the Generals it eschewed after the coup in 2021. The quick succession of talks between the two countries indicates the level of urgency between the two. Myanmar has gained prominence for the scam centres that target Americans and have been swindling billions of dollars which is a major issue for the American government (Lewis et al., 2026).
Myanmar has become a global epicentre for multi-billion-dollar cyber-fraud and romance-scam compounds operated by transnational criminal syndicates amidst the country’s ongoing civil war. These centres have become notorious for reasons like swindling and also the use of trafficked labour force which have been lured and now operate as prisoners in these fortified compounds. This progression of the country is attributable to the lawlessness prevailing in certain part of the country being used for these activities. Organized crime groups in Southeast Asia have seized on these opportunities creating social issues in USA and other regions.
In addition, the talks are likely to have diverted to the Rare Earth metals in the country which the USA desperately needs for its industries and to compete with the Chinese in fields like batteries, cell phones and other industries. Last month’s meeting in Naypyidaw between Vance and Myanmar’s coup leader-turned-president, Min Aung Hlaing, provided an opening for broader discussions in addition to the Scam centres issues. This warming up led to the holding of the next round of talks in quick succession in Japan. These are signs of USA gaining entry in Myanmar.
Myanmar’s geographical position makes it a serious battleground for the United States’ Indo-Pacific Strategy (Hussain, 2024). The relevance of Myanmar to the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is defined entirely by the US-China geopolitical rivalry and the protection of global maritime chokepoints which have more prominence in view of the Iran War and the Strait of Hormuz influence on the world economy. The Kyaukphyu Deep-Sea Port given on 50 years lease to China and the likely Chinese surveillance from the Coco islands are all of interest to the USA maritime strategy.
Effect on India
This seen in the backdrop of the Chinese presence is a significant development, Myanmar holds great importance for India in view of its effect on Manipur which happens to be in the throes of violence since 2023 (L N Singh,2026). Further the Indian efforts to develop North East by encouraging trade through land routes are of importance and have been stalled due to the situation in Manipur. Stability in Myanmar is of great importance to India and hence the engagement of the Myanmar regime internationally is a positive sign. This will lead to better governance policies being introduced and the lawlessness being controlled leading to soothing effect on conditions in Manipur. The Indian government have been castigated for engaging with the military junta which now will give some space to Indian diplomatic engagements with Myanmar. The Chinese influence on Myanmar too will be checked with the entering of the USA which will have a stabilising effect in the region.
The convergence of a shifting US-Myanmar diplomatic relationship, is profoundly altering India’s strategic and security landscape. Historically forced to navigate Western friction due to its pragmatic engagement with the military junta, India stands to gain diplomatic breathing room and a crucial counterweight against China’s monopolistic grip over the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). However, this shifting dynamic is double-edged; while coordinated international pressure may help stabilize lawless border enclaves that spill refugees and arms into northeast India—directly impacting volatile states like Manipur and Mizoram—it also introduces fierce new economic competition. As the United States aggressively re-engages the region to secure alternative supply chains for critical minerals like dysprosium and terbium, New Delhi must now compete directly with Washington to lock down the raw inputs vital for its own domestic electric vehicle (EV), technology, and defence manufacturing, all while navigating a deeply unstable war economy on its eastern flank. The present aggressive attitude of the Trump administration will have impact on Indian position in the future and the nation needs to be prepared for this development on its doorsteps
References
Fong, C., & McGowan, A. (2024, May 31). How Myanmar became a global centre for cyber scams. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/articles/how-myanmar-became-global-center-cyber-scams
Singh, L. N. (2026, September 9). Role of China in Myanmar crisis and its domino effect on Manipur (Manekshaw Paper No. 144). Centre for Land Warfare Studies. claws.co.in
Singh, D. (2026, October 12). Myanmar post 2025–2026 general elections: President Min Aung Hlaing’s visit to India—Bilateral implications and China’s strategic response (Issue Brief No. 553). Centre for Land Warfare Studies. https://claws.co.in/myanmar-post-2025-2026-general-elections-president-min-aung-hlaings-visit-to-india-bilateral-implications-and-chinas-strategic-response/
Hussain, A. (2024, December 8). Maritime security in the Indian Ocean region in the context of US-China rivalry. Diplomat Magazine. https://diplomatmagazine.eu/2024/12/08/maritime-security-in-the-indian-ocean-region-in-the-context-of-us-china-rivalry/
Lewis, S., McPherson, P., & Geddie, J. (2026, October 16). US holds more secret talks with Myanmar’s military-backed rulers in Tokyo, sources say. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-holds-more-secret-talks-with-myanmars-military-backed-rulers-tokyo-sources-2026-10-16/
