Introduction
As the already fragile ceasefire between the USA and Iran broke down, US President Donald Trump, earlier this month, warned that the US could launch an offensive to seize control of Iran’s Kharg Island. Recently, he has again shared an AI-generated image of himself seizing an Iranian oil tanker off Kharg Island. Throughout the conflict, the idea of deploying the US or allied armed forces for a ground offensive against Iran has been reiterated. Not only this, early in the conflict, there were serious proposals among the US military leadership to support Kurdish militias in Iran and Iraq against the Iranian regime. However, the possibility of a successful ‘boots on the ground’ approach in Iran and its implications for Iran, the US, and the region remain to be seen.
Occupation of Iranian Islands
Along the Iranian coastline, there are several islands, of which Larak and Qeshm, both in the northern part of the Strait of Hormuz, and Kharg, near the south-western coast of Iran, are geographically and strategically important. Kharg Island is rightfully regarded as the most strategically important of all three. Kharg is just 15 nautical miles off the coast of Iran and, being its largest oil port, controls almost 90% of Iran’s fuel exports. It has well-developed oil terminals that can accommodate very large tankers and pipelines to transport oil from the mainland. Apart from holding oil infrastructure, the island also houses serious air defence infrastructure, some of which the USA claims to have destroyed earlier in March. Till now, the USA has categorically avoided attacking the oil infrastructure on the island, possibly to prevent the conflict escalating into retaliatory attacks on the oil infrastructure in the Gulf countries. However, seizing the Kharg island, or even a large-scale attack on its oil infrastructure, will seriously cripple Iran’s oil exports and, consequently, its economy. Taking into account the will to defend itself that Iran has shown so far in the conflict, this move is likely to incentivise Iran and its leadership to escalate the conflict to US allies in the region, rather than roll back its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Larak Island is a small 49 sq km island that is strategically located near the Iranian coastline in the northern part of the Strait of Hormuz. Housing radar systems and a lighthouse, Larak acts as a watchpost for the Iranian navy, convenient for monitoring all traffic passing through the Strait. Besides Larak, the neighbouring Qeshm Island also holds strategic importance. Qeshm is the largest island in the Gulf and has a population of around 1.5 lakh, mostly Sunni citizens. Qeshm is also known as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” due to the underground missile and naval infrastructure it holds. Since the beginning of the conflict, Qeshm, once a tourist destination, has been converted into a forward naval base for the IRGC. If the US ground forces take control of both these islands, it might prove to be a setback to Iran’s offensive against the neighbouring countries like Bahrain and Kuwait.
Complexity of the Kurdish incursion
Another possible option that remains with the USA is to support the Kurdish militias in northern-western Iran and north-eastern Iraq to launch a ground offensive against the Iranian regime. Being the largest minority in Iran, Kurds constitute around 10% of the Iranian population. They are also among the most organised and well-armed communities in the region, having built alliances with Israel and the US. Since the beginning of the current conflict, around 5,000-8,000 Iranian Kurds have been training with Iraqi Kurdish militias across the border in Erbil, Iraq. However, as optimistic as it seems to American leadership, the involvement of Kurds in a ground operation in Iran is not particularly black and white. Recently, the relations between the USA and Kurds have deteriorated significantly. The Kurds have accused the US leadership of abandoning them in Syria, where the Al-Sharaa Government, a US ally, has bombed them into submission. Moreover, as per reports, Türkiye, a NATO ally, was ready to back Iran militarily if a Kurdish incursion took place in Iran. At the moment, loss of Türkiye, an important geopolitical ally, would be a setback too big for the United States to deal with. Moreover, the Kurdish community is already heavily persecuted in Iran. Since even rumours of Kurdish involvement may increase the heavy-handed repression from the Iranian Regime, the Iranian Kurdish leaders have rejected the claims of them allying with the USA. However, the repression of their cultural and political rights is still real, and their grievances have been unheard for long. Consequently, Kurdish willingness to join a ground offensive cannot be totally ignored. Rather, a decisively weak Iranian regime may signal the Kurds to join the offensive.
Conclusion
When the USA began the conflict in February 2026, it presented a list of aims, none of which have been achieved. However, as of now, it has narrowed its goals down to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which does not appear to be happening with mere airstrikes. According to Joshua Tallis of the Centre for Naval Analyses (CNA), anything short of a full-scale ground invasion of Iran would not reopen the Strait. This is largely due to Iran’s use of asymmetric warfare to close the Strait. However, all of the above options to launch a ground operation contain a fairly high risk of escalating the conflict, with thousands of casualties on both sides. Moreover, there have already been warnings from Iran of a retaliatory operation. An Iranian parliamentarian and a member of the National Security Council, Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, has already warned of a ground invasion of Kuwait and Bahrain by Iran in case of an American ground operation. Exaggerations aside, Iran has been attacking military bases and, occasionally, civilian targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. In case of such an operation by the USA, a cornered Iranian regime might decide to intensify strikes on civilian infrastructure like oil facilities or desalination plants, creating a serious economic and humanitarian crisis in the region.
